Douglas Ruas secured 49.27% of valid votes in the October 4 first round for Rio de Janeiro governor, advancing to the October 25 runoff against Eduardo Paes at 42.76%, far exceeding pre-election polling. Traders price Ruas at 94.7% to win overall, reflecting his sweep of 79 of 92 municipalities, dominant margins in the Baixada Fluminense and interior regions, and alignment with broader Liberal Party gains tied to national conservative momentum. Paes carried the capital and Niterói but trailed significantly elsewhere. A commanding position leaves limited room for reversal, though Paes could narrow the gap through higher capital turnout, stronger anti-incumbent messaging, or late shifts in undecided voters before the runoff concludes.