**Elevated inflation pressures from fuel costs and a sharply weaker New Zealand dollar are the main factors supporting a 60.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point Official Cash Rate hike to 3.00% at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s October 28 Monetary Policy Review.** The OCR stands at 2.75% following the September increase, with headline CPI at 4.1% year-over-year in the June quarter—well above the 1–3% target—while the trade-weighted index sits at a 15-year low, adding roughly 0.3 percentage points to inflation forecasts. The RBNZ’s September Monetary Policy Statement projected a 2.81% Q4 average, consistent with a pause in October and a December move, yet persistent oil prices and stronger GDP data have kept October hike odds near 60% after peaking near 80% in late September. Traders price minimal odds for larger adjustments or cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include the October 21 Q3 CPI release and Governor Breman’s upcoming remarks, which could shift the closely balanced pricing.