Elevated inflation pressures from higher fuel and energy costs, pushing the June 2026 CPI to 4.1% annually, represent the primary driver behind the 57.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point Official Cash Rate increase at the December meeting. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the OCR to 2.75% in September amid these shocks, while signaling a gradual tightening path dependent on medium-term risks; banks including Westpac now project a further lift to 3% by year-end to counter indirect price effects. Core measures excluding fuels remain nearer the 1-3% target band, supporting the 35.5% chance of no change as the next most favored outcome. The December Monetary Policy Statement and latest CPI data will serve as key catalysts for any shift in trader consensus.