The Reserve Bank of Australia's September 29 decision to raise the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.60 percent, its fourth hike of 2026, anchors the market's 83.5 percent implied probability of no change at the November 3 meeting. Persistent inflation—headline CPI at 4.0 percent year-over-year and trimmed mean steady at 3.6 percent through August—reflects domestic capacity pressures and higher energy costs, yet the Board signaled it would assess the cumulative impact of prior tightening before acting further. Softer labor-market indicators and moderating demand have tempered expectations for an immediate follow-up move, while September-quarter CPI data due October 28 and fresh employment figures represent the key swing factors that could shift the 16.3 percent odds of a 25-basis-point increase. Traders pricing in a hold view the current restrictive stance as sufficient to bring inflation toward the 2–3 percent target without additional near-term tightening.