Recent Australian CPI data showing headline inflation rising to 4.0% year-over-year through August 2026, alongside a steady 3.6% trimmed mean, has reinforced the RBA’s hawkish stance following its unanimous 25-basis-point hike to 4.60% in late September. This backdrop, combined with the central bank’s explicit willingness to tighten further if needed, underpins the modest 16.4% market-implied probability of another 25-basis-point increase at the November 3 meeting. However, trader consensus heavily favors no change at 83.5%, reflecting assessments that cumulative policy tightening is already weighing on growth and that the upcoming September-quarter CPI release on October 28 may not justify additional action absent further upside surprises.