The Reserve Bank of Australia’s November 3 meeting carries an 83.5% market-implied probability of no change at the current 4.60% cash rate, reflecting trader assessment that the September 29 hike and subsequent data have sufficiently tightened conditions for now. Headline CPI rose to 4.0% year-over-year in August from 3.5% in July, driven by housing and fuel costs amid Middle East energy pressures, while the trimmed-mean measure held steady at 3.6%. The RBA’s post-meeting statement emphasized elevated inflation risks and openness to further tightening, yet banks remain split—ANZ and Westpac project another 25-basis-point increase while NAB and CBA favor a hold. The September-quarter CPI release on October 28 will provide the key update ahead of the decision, with labor-market and global energy developments likely to influence final positioning.