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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 39.1%

Marco Rubio 21.3%

Tucker Carlson 4.6%

Ron DeSantis 2.7%

Polymarket

$563,199,793 Vol.

J.D. Vance 39.1%

Marco Rubio 21.3%

Tucker Carlson 4.6%

Ron DeSantis 2.7%

Polymarket

$563,199,793 Vol.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

J.D. Vance

$12,120,988 Vol.

39%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Marco Rubio

$8,017,982 Vol.

21%

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Tucker Carlson

$10,285,057 Vol.

5%

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Ron DeSantis

$12,532,329 Vol.

3%

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Donald Trump

$7,200,023 Vol.

2%

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Donald Trump Jr.

$6,714,265 Vol.

2%

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Thomas Massie

$3,252,024 Vol.

2%

Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Glenn Youngkin

$6,333,997 Vol.

2%

Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Tulsi Gabbard

$11,306,242 Vol.

1%

Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Rand Paul

$17,031,987 Vol.

1%

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Vivek Ramaswamy

$13,682,431 Vol.

1%

Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Ivanka Trump

$6,249,876 Vol.

1%

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Elon Musk

$26,727,477 Vol.

1%

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Ted Cruz

$15,215,283 Vol.

1%

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Nikki Haley

$8,145,336 Vol.

1%

Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Greg Abbott

$17,987,271 Vol.

1%

Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,609,172 Vol.

1%

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$12,592,802 Vol.

1%

Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Brian Kemp

$14,341,154 Vol.

1%

Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Josh Hawley

$17,704,285 Vol.

1%

Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Matt Gaetz

$16,705,557 Vol.

1%

Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Eric Trump

$5,297,984 Vol.

1%

Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$29,049,028 Vol.

1%

Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Katie Britt

$25,595,239 Vol.

1%

Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Tom Brady

$29,335,056 Vol.

1%

Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Steve Bannon

$17,675,194 Vol.

1%

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Kim Kardashian

$25,358,656 Vol.

1%

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Pete Hegseth

$3,772,384 Vol.

1%

Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Byron Donalds

$36,335,188 Vol.

1%

Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Elise Stefanik

$23,284,811 Vol.

1%

Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Erika Kirk

$14,292,415 Vol.

1%

Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

John Thune

$31,066,383 Vol.

1%

Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Kristi Noem

$30,613,212 Vol.

1%

Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Joe Kent

$4,161,228 Vol.

1%

Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Mike Pence

$38,674,340 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the narrow frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance at 39% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 21%, reflecting RFK Jr.'s surging visibility through Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiatives and high-profile congressional hearings on vaccines and public health policy in recent weeks. This diverges from early April straw polls and surveys like CPAC and Yale Youth Poll, where Vance retains a lead among GOP voters but shows slippage amid his prominent role in foreign policy debates over Iran strikes. Rubio's momentum from donor backing and strong showings in Florida-focused primaries previews a fragmented field, with the race tight due to Trump-era factionalism pitting MAGA continuity against outsider appeal and establishment networks; 2026 midterm results, key endorsements, and fundraising hauls could create separation by signaling electability in swing states and early primary caucuses.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$563,199,793
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the narrow frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance at 39% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 21%, reflecting RFK Jr.'s surging visibility through Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiatives and high-profile congressional hearings on vaccines and public health policy in recent weeks. This diverges from early April straw polls and surveys like CPAC and Yale Youth Poll, where Vance retains a lead among GOP voters but shows slippage amid his prominent role in foreign policy debates over Iran strikes. Rubio's momentum from donor backing and strong showings in Florida-focused primaries previews a fragmented field, with the race tight due to Trump-era factionalism pitting MAGA continuity against outsider appeal and establishment networks; 2026 midterm results, key endorsements, and fundraising hauls could create separation by signaling electability in swing states and early primary caucuses.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$563,199,793
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $563.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.