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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 39.1%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 4.5%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$569,141,627 Vol.

J.D. Vance 39.1%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 4.5%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$569,141,627 Vol.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

J.D. Vance

$12,157,286 Vol.

39%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Marco Rubio

$8,037,423 Vol.

22%

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Tucker Carlson

$10,320,528 Vol.

4%

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Ron DeSantis

$12,582,074 Vol.

3%

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Donald Trump Jr.

$6,792,617 Vol.

2%

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Donald Trump

$7,296,202 Vol.

2%

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Thomas Massie

$3,260,859 Vol.

2%

Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Glenn Youngkin

$6,481,032 Vol.

2%

Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Tulsi Gabbard

$11,335,624 Vol.

1%

Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Rand Paul

$17,112,051 Vol.

1%

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Vivek Ramaswamy

$13,871,972 Vol.

1%

Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Ivanka Trump

$6,309,069 Vol.

1%

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Elon Musk

$26,735,337 Vol.

1%

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Ted Cruz

$15,227,454 Vol.

1%

Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,744,740 Vol.

1%

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Nikki Haley

$8,209,420 Vol.

1%

Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Greg Abbott

$18,059,914 Vol.

1%

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$12,728,241 Vol.

1%

Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Brian Kemp

$14,430,871 Vol.

1%

Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Josh Hawley

$17,801,251 Vol.

1%

Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Matt Gaetz

$16,803,125 Vol.

1%

Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$29,444,150 Vol.

1%

Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Katie Britt

$25,717,919 Vol.

1%

Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Tom Brady

$29,383,706 Vol.

1%

Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Steve Bannon

$19,358,476 Vol.

1%

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Kim Kardashian

$25,501,001 Vol.

1%

Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Eric Trump

$5,557,162 Vol.

1%

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Pete Hegseth

$4,151,915 Vol.

1%

Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Byron Donalds

$36,620,464 Vol.

1%

Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Elise Stefanik

$23,441,451 Vol.

1%

Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Erika Kirk

$14,398,080 Vol.

1%

Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

John Thune

$31,204,820 Vol.

1%

Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Kristi Noem

$30,909,070 Vol.

1%

Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Joe Kent

$4,305,015 Vol.

1%

Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Mike Pence

$38,852,854 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the narrow 2028 Republican presidential nominee frontrunner at 49%, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance at 39% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 22%, driven by their prominent roles in President Trump's second-term cabinet and high-visibility policy execution amid over $550 million in market volume. RFK Jr.'s lead stems from his Trump endorsement and HHS reforms appealing to base voters, despite his independent background, while Vance's VP incumbency advantage is tempered by criticism over stalled Iran ceasefire negotiations. Rubio surges on donor signals preferring his foreign policy profile. The tight top-three race hinges on 2026 midterm results, potential endorsements, and primary polling, with no declared candidates yet keeping odds fluid.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$569,141,627
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the narrow 2028 Republican presidential nominee frontrunner at 49%, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance at 39% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 22%, driven by their prominent roles in President Trump's second-term cabinet and high-visibility policy execution amid over $550 million in market volume. RFK Jr.'s lead stems from his Trump endorsement and HHS reforms appealing to base voters, despite his independent background, while Vance's VP incumbency advantage is tempered by criticism over stalled Iran ceasefire negotiations. Rubio surges on donor signals preferring his foreign policy profile. The tight top-three race hinges on 2026 midterm results, potential endorsements, and primary polling, with no declared candidates yet keeping odds fluid.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$569,141,627
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $569.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.