Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 42.0%

Marco Rubio 21.9%

Tucker Carlson 4.2%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$546,216,335 Vol.

J.D. Vance 42.0%

Marco Rubio 21.9%

Tucker Carlson 4.2%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$546,216,335 Vol.

Market icon

J.D. Vance

$11,870,372 Vol.

42%

Market icon

Marco Rubio

$7,649,951 Vol.

22%

Market icon

Tucker Carlson

$9,046,453 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Ron DeSantis

$12,285,849 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Donald Trump

$7,060,186 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Thomas Massie

$3,220,978 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Donald Trump Jr.

$6,486,985 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Glenn Youngkin

$5,766,716 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Rand Paul

$16,737,963 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tulsi Gabbard

$11,234,900 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Vivek Ramaswamy

$13,334,679 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ivanka Trump

$5,929,095 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Elon Musk

$26,567,938 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Nikki Haley

$7,829,568 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,317,195 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Greg Abbott

$17,807,281 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ted Cruz

$14,876,832 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Matt Gaetz

$16,060,745 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Eric Trump

$4,772,367 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,630,626 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$12,033,681 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Brian Kemp

$13,710,181 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Josh Hawley

$17,072,864 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Katie Britt

$25,153,641 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Joe Kent

$3,237,132 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tom Brady

$28,980,051 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Steve Bannon

$16,442,964 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Kim Kardashian

$24,715,910 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Pete Hegseth

$3,085,562 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Byron Donalds

$35,807,532 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Elise Stefanik

$22,777,423 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Erika Kirk

$13,826,353 Vol.

1%

Market icon

John Thune

$30,606,899 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Kristi Noem

$29,933,102 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Mike Pence

$37,351,432 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds a slim edge at 49% implied probability over Vice President J.D. Vance at 42% in trader consensus for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, reflecting their prominent Trump administration roles in an open primary barred to President Trump by term limits. RFK Jr.'s "Make America Healthy Again" push and recent swing-state tours alongside GOP lawmakers in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have boosted his outsider appeal, while Vance leverages vice-presidential incumbency and CPAC straw poll leads, though Polymarket odds diverge from traditional polling favoring Vance. The tight race stems from absent Trump endorsement signals and policy tensions, such as Rand Paul's recent free-trade pitch; separation could arise from midterm results, formal announcements, or Trump's successor pick.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$546,216,335
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds a slim edge at 49% implied probability over Vice President J.D. Vance at 42% in trader consensus for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, reflecting their prominent Trump administration roles in an open primary barred to President Trump by term limits. RFK Jr.'s "Make America Healthy Again" push and recent swing-state tours alongside GOP lawmakers in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have boosted his outsider appeal, while Vance leverages vice-presidential incumbency and CPAC straw poll leads, though Polymarket odds diverge from traditional polling favoring Vance. The tight race stems from absent Trump endorsement signals and policy tensions, such as Rand Paul's recent free-trade pitch; separation could arise from midterm results, formal announcements, or Trump's successor pick.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$546,216,335
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 42%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $546.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.