Ryan Gosling's "Project Hail Mary" boasts trader consensus at a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 4th weekend domestic gross exceeding $22 million, propelled by exceptional word-of-mouth and elite box office legs unseen since "Oppenheimer." The sci-fi adaptation held 67% in weekend 2 to $54 million, then 59% to $32 million in weekend 3 despite competition, signaling sustained audience enthusiasm via strong CinemaScore grades and IMAX dominance. Fresh estimates peg the April 10-12 frame at $24.6 million with a stellar 78% hold, pushing domestic cume past $256 million. Realistic upsets—sub-$22 million—would require anomalous drops from bad weather or surprise holdover challengers, but the film's multiplier trajectory (over 3.1x opening) renders them improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office
"Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office
>22m 100.0%
<18m <1%
18-20m <1%
20-22m <1%
$200,830 Vol.
$200,830 Vol.
Apr 13, 2026
<18m
No
18-20m
No
20-22m
No
>22m
Yes
>22m 100.0%
<18m <1%
18-20m <1%
20-22m <1%
$200,830 Vol.
$200,830 Vol.
Apr 13, 2026
<18m
$12,036 Vol.
No
18-20m
$11,711 Vol.
No
20-22m
$13,094 Vol.
No
>22m
$163,989 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 4th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Ryan Gosling's "Project Hail Mary" boasts trader consensus at a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 4th weekend domestic gross exceeding $22 million, propelled by exceptional word-of-mouth and elite box office legs unseen since "Oppenheimer." The sci-fi adaptation held 67% in weekend 2 to $54 million, then 59% to $32 million in weekend 3 despite competition, signaling sustained audience enthusiasm via strong CinemaScore grades and IMAX dominance. Fresh estimates peg the April 10-12 frame at $24.6 million with a stellar 78% hold, pushing domestic cume past $256 million. Realistic upsets—sub-$22 million—would require anomalous drops from bad weather or surprise holdover challengers, but the film's multiplier trajectory (over 3.1x opening) renders them improbable.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 4th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 6, 2026, 5:58 PM ET
Volume
$200,830End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 5:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 4th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Ryan Gosling's "Project Hail Mary" boasts trader consensus at a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 4th weekend domestic gross exceeding $22 million, propelled by exceptional word-of-mouth and elite box office legs unseen since "Oppenheimer." The sci-fi adaptation held 67% in weekend 2 to $54 million, then 59% to $32 million in weekend 3 despite competition, signaling sustained audience enthusiasm via strong CinemaScore grades and IMAX dominance. Fresh estimates peg the April 10-12 frame at $24.6 million with a stellar 78% hold, pushing domestic cume past $256 million. Realistic upsets—sub-$22 million—would require anomalous drops from bad weather or surprise holdover challengers, but the film's multiplier trajectory (over 3.1x opening) renders them improbable.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 4th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$200,830End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 5:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Ryan Gosling's "Project Hail Mary" boasts trader consensus at a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 4th weekend domestic gross exceeding $22 million, propelled by exceptional word-of-mouth and elite box office legs unseen since "Oppenheimer." The sci-fi adaptation held 67% in weekend 2 to $54 million, then 59% to $32 million in weekend 3 despite competition, signaling sustained audience enthusiasm via strong CinemaScore grades and IMAX dominance. Fresh estimates peg the April 10-12 frame at $24.6 million with a stellar 78% hold, pushing domestic cume past $256 million. Realistic upsets—sub-$22 million—would require anomalous drops from bad weather or surprise holdover challengers, but the film's multiplier trajectory (over 3.1x opening) renders them improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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