The Patriots' 29-26 road upset over the Bills in Week 4 at Highmark Stadium has reshaped the season series outlook. Drake Maye threw three touchdown passes, including a late go-ahead strike to Efton Chism, while overcoming early turnovers to rally New England. Buffalo, now 3-1 after the loss, still leads the AFC East but trails in the head-to-head tiebreaker. With the rematch scheduled for December 6 at Gillette Stadium, traders see a split as the most probable outcome at 52 percent implied probability, followed by a Patriots sweep at 29.5 percent. Buffalo's strong offensive form led by Josh Allen and recent divisional standing create realistic paths for either result, though New England's momentum and home advantage in the finale factor into current pricing.