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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 18.8%

Gavin Newsom 16.1%

Marco Rubio 9.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.5%

Polymarket

$517,876,439 Vol.

JD Vance 18.8%

Gavin Newsom 16.1%

Marco Rubio 9.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.5%

Polymarket

$517,876,439 Vol.

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JD Vance

$10,114,425 Vol.

19%

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Gavin Newsom

$13,656,237 Vol.

16%

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Marco Rubio

$5,965,097 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,772,526 Vol.

5%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,436,127 Vol.

4%

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Kamala Harris

$6,946,688 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,865,159 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,778,495 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,924,610 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,627,997 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,841,654 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$17,423,811 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$20,792,203 Vol.

1%

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JB Pritzker

$10,815,452 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$6,043,931 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,770,024 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$8,557,120 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$4,352,130 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,646,275 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,609,522 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,845,001 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,516,446 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,594,953 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$7,057,048 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$29,579,525 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$9,185,844 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,783,729 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$17,558,638 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$6,576,586 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$39,462,411 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$6,440,905 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$28,127,782 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$4,340,753 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$30,979,859 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,691,055 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$46,200,518 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads trader consensus at 18.8% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, bolstered by his recent CPAC straw poll victory at 53% among Republicans—his second straight win—reflecting incumbency advantages as Trump's heir apparent. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.1%, propelled by new polls tying him for second in New Hampshire's Democratic primary and leading Kamala Harris in California, signaling Democratic fragmentation post-2024. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 9.7% share has risen amid differing stances with Vance on the Iran war, elevating his foreign policy profile via GOP donor efforts. With 2026 midterms looming as a key test of party strength and swing state dynamics, the fragmented field keeps top contenders tightly matched, vulnerable to shifts from primaries, endorsements, or scandals.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$517,876,439
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads trader consensus at 18.8% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, bolstered by his recent CPAC straw poll victory at 53% among Republicans—his second straight win—reflecting incumbency advantages as Trump's heir apparent. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.1%, propelled by new polls tying him for second in New Hampshire's Democratic primary and leading Kamala Harris in California, signaling Democratic fragmentation post-2024. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 9.7% share has risen amid differing stances with Vance on the Iran war, elevating his foreign policy profile via GOP donor efforts. With 2026 midterms looming as a key test of party strength and swing state dynamics, the fragmented field keeps top contenders tightly matched, vulnerable to shifts from primaries, endorsements, or scandals.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$517,876,439
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 19%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $517.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.