**Trader consensus on sub-425 mm August precipitation in Hong Kong stems from official Hong Kong Observatory totals of roughly 234 mm, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453 mm.** This dry outcome reflects subdued monsoon activity and limited tropical cyclone influence, with only scattered showers rather than the prolonged heavy rain events that produced 900+ mm totals in wetter years such as 2025. Record-high temperatures and reduced cloud cover further suppressed convective rainfall. Final HKO verification data, expected imminently, will confirm resolution; any late upward revision in regional gauges remains unlikely to approach the 425 mm threshold given the month’s observed pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
<425mm 95.0%
425-450mm <1%
450-475mm <1%
475-500mm <1%
$19,917 Vol.
$19,917 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
Yes
425-450mm
No
450-475mm
No
475-500mm
No
500-525mm
No
525-550mm
No
550-600mm
No
600-650mm
No
650-700mm
No
700mm+
No
<425mm 95.0%
425-450mm <1%
450-475mm <1%
475-500mm <1%
$19,917 Vol.
$19,917 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
$6,986 Vol.
Yes
425-450mm
$1,533 Vol.
No
450-475mm
$2,197 Vol.
No
475-500mm
$1,245 Vol.
No
500-525mm
$976 Vol.
No
525-550mm
$946 Vol.
No
550-600mm
$864 Vol.
No
600-650mm
$1,054 Vol.
No
650-700mm
$1,097 Vol.
No
700mm+
$3,020 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on sub-425 mm August precipitation in Hong Kong stems from official Hong Kong Observatory totals of roughly 234 mm, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453 mm.**
This dry outcome reflects subdued monsoon activity and limited tropical cyclone influence, with only scattered showers rather than the prolonged heavy rain events that produced 900+ mm totals in wetter years such as 2025. Record-high temperatures and reduced cloud cover further suppressed convective rainfall. Final HKO verification data, expected imminently, will confirm resolution; any late upward revision in regional gauges remains unlikely to approach the 425 mm threshold given the month’s observed pattern.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$19,917End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on sub-425 mm August precipitation in Hong Kong stems from official Hong Kong Observatory totals of roughly 234 mm, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453 mm.**
This dry outcome reflects subdued monsoon activity and limited tropical cyclone influence, with only scattered showers rather than the prolonged heavy rain events that produced 900+ mm totals in wetter years such as 2025. Record-high temperatures and reduced cloud cover further suppressed convective rainfall. Final HKO verification data, expected imminently, will confirm resolution; any late upward revision in regional gauges remains unlikely to approach the 425 mm threshold given the month’s observed pattern.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$19,917End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
**Trader consensus on sub-425 mm August precipitation in Hong Kong stems from official Hong Kong Observatory totals of roughly 234 mm, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453 mm.** This dry outcome reflects subdued monsoon activity and limited tropical cyclone influence, with only scattered showers rather than the prolonged heavy rain events that produced 900+ mm totals in wetter years such as 2025. Record-high temperatures and reduced cloud cover further suppressed convective rainfall. Final HKO verification data, expected imminently, will confirm resolution; any late upward revision in regional gauges remains unlikely to approach the 425 mm threshold given the month’s observed pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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