Aaron Rai's dominant final-round performance at Aronimink Golf Club has locked in his position as the 2026 PGA Championship winner, driving overwhelming trader consensus toward a near-certain outcome. The Englishman built and extended a multi-shot lead through strong ball-striking and putts under pressure on a demanding course layout, outpacing contenders including Jon Rahm and others in the field. With the major now resolved on the leaderboard, scenarios that could still shift the result remain limited to any official scoring adjustments or rare post-round reviews, though such developments rarely alter established results in PGA Tour majors. David Puig and the broader field trail significantly in implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAaron Rai 100.0%
Scottie Scheffler <1%
Rory McIlroy <1%
Cameron Young <1%
$8,982,129 Vol.
$8,982,129 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Scottie Scheffler
No
Rory McIlroy
No
Cameron Young
No
Jon Rahm
No
Xander Schauffele
No
Ludvig Aberg
No
Bryson DeChambeau
No
Matt Fitzpatrick
No
Tommy Fleetwood
No
Justin Thomas
No
Patrick Cantlay
No
Brooks Koepka
No
Collin Morikawa
No
Adam Scott
No
Sam Burns
No
Chris Gotterup
No
Russell Henley
No
Viktor Hovland
No
Robert MacIntyre
No
Jordan Spieth
No
Kurt Kitayama
No
Shane Lowry
No
Maverick McNealy
No
Gary Woodland
No
Keegan Bradley
No
Alex Fitzpatrick
No
Sungjae Im
No
Alex Noren
No
Alex Smalley
No
Corey Conners
No
Harry Hall
No
Marco Penge
No
Michael Thorbjornsen
No
Pierceson Coody
No
Haotong Li
No
J.T. Poston
No
Cameron Smith
No
Sam Stevens
No
Sahith Theegala
No
Angel Ayora
No
Michael Brennan
No
Ryan Fox
No
Ryo Hisatsune
No
Max Homa
No
Tom McKibbin
No
John Keefer
No
Andrew Novak
No
Andrew Putnam
No
Jayden Schaper
No
Austin Smotherman
No
Sami Valimaki
No
Brandt Snedeker
No
Daniel Brown
No
Stewart Cink
No
Steven Fisk
No
Min Woo Lee
No
Justin Rose
No
J.J. Spaun
No
Rickie Fowler
No
Tyrrell Hatton
No
Nicolai Hojgaard
No
Si Woo Kim
No
Patrick Reed
No
Sepp Straka
No
Jake Knapp
No
Hideki Matsuyama
No
Kristoffer Reitan
No
Akshay Bhatia
No
Harris English
No
Ben Griffin
No
Joaquin Niemann
No
David Puig
No
Jacob Bridgeman
No
Jason Day
No
Matt McCarty
No
Aaron Rai
Yes
Wyndham Clark
No
Brian Harman
No
Taylor Pendrith
No
Aldrich Potgieter
No
Jordan Smith
No
Nick Taylor
No
Matt Wallace
No
Daniel Berger
No
Bud Cauley
No
Ryan Gerard
No
Rasmus Hojgaard
No
Dustin Johnson
No
Keith Mitchell
No
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
No
John Parry
No
Patrick Rodgers
No
Matti Schmid
No
Elvis Smylie
No
Bernd Wiesberger
No
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
No
Ricky Castillo
No
Nicolas Echavarria
No
Lucas Glover
No
Aaron Rai 100.0%
Scottie Scheffler <1%
Rory McIlroy <1%
Cameron Young <1%
$8,982,129 Vol.
$8,982,129 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Scottie Scheffler
$770,620 Vol.
No
Rory McIlroy
$848,893 Vol.
No
Cameron Young
$297,306 Vol.
No
Jon Rahm
$787,886 Vol.
No
Xander Schauffele
$514,652 Vol.
No
Ludvig Aberg
$311,843 Vol.
No
Bryson DeChambeau
$65,778 Vol.
No
Matt Fitzpatrick
$163,836 Vol.
No
Tommy Fleetwood
$34,550 Vol.
No
Justin Thomas
$186,691 Vol.
No
Patrick Cantlay
$72,804 Vol.
No
Brooks Koepka
$126,931 Vol.
No
Collin Morikawa
$210,723 Vol.
No
Adam Scott
$2,906 Vol.
No
Sam Burns
$55,602 Vol.
No
Chris Gotterup
$126,313 Vol.
No
Russell Henley
$61,242 Vol.
No
Viktor Hovland
$25,055 Vol.
No
Robert MacIntyre
$6,728 Vol.
No
Jordan Spieth
$92,753 Vol.
No
Kurt Kitayama
$135,706 Vol.
No
Shane Lowry
$74,556 Vol.
No
Maverick McNealy
$88,289 Vol.
No
Gary Woodland
$16,797 Vol.
No
Keegan Bradley
$15,284 Vol.
No
Alex Fitzpatrick
$54,789 Vol.
No
Sungjae Im
$15,558 Vol.
No
Alex Noren
$4,596 Vol.
No
Alex Smalley
$419,464 Vol.
No
Corey Conners
$45,221 Vol.
No
Harry Hall
$1,603 Vol.
No
Marco Penge
$3,170 Vol.
No
Michael Thorbjornsen
$66,920 Vol.
No
Pierceson Coody
$2,040 Vol.
No
Haotong Li
$195,029 Vol.
No
J.T. Poston
$785 Vol.
No
Cameron Smith
$148,573 Vol.
No
Sam Stevens
$39,906 Vol.
No
Sahith Theegala
$54,523 Vol.
No
Angel Ayora
$7,623 Vol.
No
Michael Brennan
$14,720 Vol.
No
Ryan Fox
$6,101 Vol.
No
Ryo Hisatsune
$48,170 Vol.
No
Max Homa
$16,789 Vol.
No
Tom McKibbin
$330 Vol.
No
John Keefer
$1,305 Vol.
No
Andrew Novak
$3,106 Vol.
No
Andrew Putnam
$6,575 Vol.
No
Jayden Schaper
$330 Vol.
No
Austin Smotherman
$877 Vol.
No
Sami Valimaki
$1,835 Vol.
No
Brandt Snedeker
$459 Vol.
No
Daniel Brown
$8,963 Vol.
No
Stewart Cink
$325 Vol.
No
Steven Fisk
$505 Vol.
No
Min Woo Lee
$165,822 Vol.
No
Justin Rose
$178,295 Vol.
No
J.J. Spaun
$15,973 Vol.
No
Rickie Fowler
$89,070 Vol.
No
Tyrrell Hatton
$7,967 Vol.
No
Nicolai Hojgaard
$67,556 Vol.
No
Si Woo Kim
$62,298 Vol.
No
Patrick Reed
$179,933 Vol.
No
Sepp Straka
$14,306 Vol.
No
Jake Knapp
$15,137 Vol.
No
Hideki Matsuyama
$164,794 Vol.
No
Kristoffer Reitan
$133,731 Vol.
No
Akshay Bhatia
$38,212 Vol.
No
Harris English
$60,530 Vol.
No
Ben Griffin
$54,202 Vol.
No
Joaquin Niemann
$81,040 Vol.
No
David Puig
$72,385 Vol.
No
Jacob Bridgeman
$1,000 Vol.
No
Jason Day
$48,263 Vol.
No
Matt McCarty
$7,814 Vol.
No
Aaron Rai
$397,512 Vol.
Yes
Wyndham Clark
$2,008 Vol.
No
Brian Harman
$3,840 Vol.
No
Taylor Pendrith
$1,848 Vol.
No
Aldrich Potgieter
$103,305 Vol.
No
Jordan Smith
$1,890 Vol.
No
Nick Taylor
$241,652 Vol.
No
Matt Wallace
$1,165 Vol.
No
Daniel Berger
$26,588 Vol.
No
Bud Cauley
$43,600 Vol.
No
Ryan Gerard
$21,069 Vol.
No
Rasmus Hojgaard
$86,198 Vol.
No
Dustin Johnson
$22,736 Vol.
No
Keith Mitchell
$1,956 Vol.
No
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
$4,146 Vol.
No
John Parry
$877 Vol.
No
Patrick Rodgers
$510 Vol.
No
Matti Schmid
$291,688 Vol.
No
Elvis Smylie
$1,759 Vol.
No
Bernd Wiesberger
$885 Vol.
No
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
$3,367 Vol.
No
Ricky Castillo
$325 Vol.
No
Nicolas Echavarria
$620 Vol.
No
Lucas Glover
$320 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Aaron Rai's dominant final-round performance at Aronimink Golf Club has locked in his position as the 2026 PGA Championship winner, driving overwhelming trader consensus toward a near-certain outcome. The Englishman built and extended a multi-shot lead through strong ball-striking and putts under pressure on a demanding course layout, outpacing contenders including Jon Rahm and others in the field. With the major now resolved on the leaderboard, scenarios that could still shift the result remain limited to any official scoring adjustments or rare post-round reviews, though such developments rarely alter established results in PGA Tour majors. David Puig and the broader field trail significantly in implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Volume
$8,982,129End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Aaron Rai's dominant final-round performance at Aronimink Golf Club has locked in his position as the 2026 PGA Championship winner, driving overwhelming trader consensus toward a near-certain outcome. The Englishman built and extended a multi-shot lead through strong ball-striking and putts under pressure on a demanding course layout, outpacing contenders including Jon Rahm and others in the field. With the major now resolved on the leaderboard, scenarios that could still shift the result remain limited to any official scoring adjustments or rare post-round reviews, though such developments rarely alter established results in PGA Tour majors. David Puig and the broader field trail significantly in implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,982,129End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Aaron Rai's dominant final-round performance at Aronimink Golf Club has locked in his position as the 2026 PGA Championship winner, driving overwhelming trader consensus toward a near-certain outcome. The Englishman built and extended a multi-shot lead through strong ball-striking and putts under pressure on a demanding course layout, outpacing contenders including Jon Rahm and others in the field. With the major now resolved on the leaderboard, scenarios that could still shift the result remain limited to any official scoring adjustments or rare post-round reviews, though such developments rarely alter established results in PGA Tour majors. David Puig and the broader field trail significantly in implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions