Pete Hegseth remains actively engaged as secretary of defense, with recent public appearances including a June 14 interview and official Pentagon updates confirming his role amid ongoing operations related to Iran and other priorities. No resignation announcements, Senate actions, or White House statements have signaled departure before the June 30 resolution window, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% probability on "No." Earlier 2026 controversies over officer firings and congressional scrutiny have not escalated into removal pressure in recent weeks. A sudden health event, major scandal, or presidential directive could still shift the outcome in the narrow timeframe, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.