OpenAI’s leadership has avoided any formal public declaration of having achieved AGI despite the September 2026 launch of GPT-6 Astra, which prompted qualified comments from president Greg Brockman about entering “the AGI era” and CEO Sam Altman’s earlier August remarks that an internal system meeting his definition might arrive by year-end. Independent evaluations, including ARC-AGI-3 benchmark results showing 62.7% under neutral testing, have not produced consensus that current large language models demonstrate general intelligence across economically valuable tasks. Recent internal math research publications and ongoing safety pauses further underscore incremental progress rather than a resolved milestone. With roughly two months left in 2026 and no clear resolution criteria met, traders price an explicit announcement at just 12.5% implied probability.