Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for MrBeast's next video—"Last To Leave Grocery Store, Wins $250,000," uploaded April 18—achieving 35–40 million day-one YouTube views, confirmed by official metrics showing around 39 million in the first 24 hours. This aligns with his proven formula of high-stakes survival challenges, leveraging a 478 million subscriber base and algorithmic promotion for explosive initial traction, rebounding from the prior "50 Streamers Fight for $1,000,000" video's lower ~24 million day-one haul. Strong positioning stems from real-time view count verification, with upset scenarios now negligible barring rare YouTube recount adjustments or data disputes. Watch for week-one trajectory updates as secondary markets track sustained momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?
35–40M 100.0%
<20M <1%
20–25M <1%
25–30M <1%
$825,835 Vol.
$825,835 Vol.
<20M
No
20–25M
No
25–30M
No
30–35M
No
35–40M
Yes
40–45M
No
45–50M
No
50M+
No
35–40M 100.0%
<20M <1%
20–25M <1%
25–30M <1%
$825,835 Vol.
$825,835 Vol.
<20M
No
20–25M
No
25–30M
No
30–35M
No
35–40M
Yes
40–45M
No
45–50M
No
50M+
No
If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 5:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for MrBeast's next video—"Last To Leave Grocery Store, Wins $250,000," uploaded April 18—achieving 35–40 million day-one YouTube views, confirmed by official metrics showing around 39 million in the first 24 hours. This aligns with his proven formula of high-stakes survival challenges, leveraging a 478 million subscriber base and algorithmic promotion for explosive initial traction, rebounding from the prior "50 Streamers Fight for $1,000,000" video's lower ~24 million day-one haul. Strong positioning stems from real-time view count verification, with upset scenarios now negligible barring rare YouTube recount adjustments or data disputes. Watch for week-one trajectory updates as secondary markets track sustained momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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