The absence of any active criminal indictment, arrest warrant, or confirmed DOJ charges against the former president underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against an arrest before 2027. Ongoing grand jury examinations target Obama-era officials over 2016 intelligence assessments, yet reporting shows no proceedings have extended to him personally despite political calls for accountability. Institutional norms, evidentiary standards for prosecuting former presidents, and the absence of new developments in the past year reinforce this positioning. Late shifts remain possible if probes expand with specific evidence or if unrelated legal matters surface before the deadline, though such paths face substantial procedural and factual hurdles.