Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in the NY-26 race, with trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory against Republican Dennis Hannon. The district's established partisan lean, combined with Kennedy's uncontested Democratic primary and Hannon's similarly unopposed path through Republican proceedings in June 2026, reinforces expectations of continuity. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, aligning with historical voting patterns and the absence of significant polling shifts or national headwinds capable of overcoming structural advantages. Potential disruptions remain limited to low-probability events such as major scandals, health-related withdrawals, or an extraordinary midterm swing that alters turnout dynamics in this safely held seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-26 House Election Winner
NY-26 House Election Winner
$26,594 Vol.
$26,594 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$26,594 Vol.
$26,594 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,426 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$12,168 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in the NY-26 race, with trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory against Republican Dennis Hannon. The district's established partisan lean, combined with Kennedy's uncontested Democratic primary and Hannon's similarly unopposed path through Republican proceedings in June 2026, reinforces expectations of continuity. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, aligning with historical voting patterns and the absence of significant polling shifts or national headwinds capable of overcoming structural advantages. Potential disruptions remain limited to low-probability events such as major scandals, health-related withdrawals, or an extraordinary midterm swing that alters turnout dynamics in this safely held seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$26,594End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in the NY-26 race, with trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory against Republican Dennis Hannon. The district's established partisan lean, combined with Kennedy's uncontested Democratic primary and Hannon's similarly unopposed path through Republican proceedings in June 2026, reinforces expectations of continuity. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, aligning with historical voting patterns and the absence of significant polling shifts or national headwinds capable of overcoming structural advantages. Potential disruptions remain limited to low-probability events such as major scandals, health-related withdrawals, or an extraordinary midterm swing that alters turnout dynamics in this safely held seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,594End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in the NY-26 race, with trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory against Republican Dennis Hannon. The district's established partisan lean, combined with Kennedy's uncontested Democratic primary and Hannon's similarly unopposed path through Republican proceedings in June 2026, reinforces expectations of continuity. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, aligning with historical voting patterns and the absence of significant polling shifts or national headwinds capable of overcoming structural advantages. Potential disruptions remain limited to low-probability events such as major scandals, health-related withdrawals, or an extraordinary midterm swing that alters turnout dynamics in this safely held seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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