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Economy·TSA

Number of TSA Passengers March 29?

icon for Number of TSA Passengers March 29?
Economy·TSA

Number of TSA Passengers March 29?

Ended: Mar 29

Ended: Mar 29

2.6M-2.8M 100.0%

<2.6M <1%

2.8M-3.0M <1%

3.0M-3.2M <1%

Polymarket

$18,641 Vol.

2.6M-2.8M 100.0%

<2.6M <1%

2.8M-3.0M <1%

3.0M-3.2M <1%

Polymarket

$18,641 Vol.

<2.6M

$1,791 Vol.

No

2.6M-2.8M

$619 Vol.

Yes

2.8M-3.0M

$12,939 Vol.

No

3.0M-3.2M

$613 Vol.

No

3.2M-3.4M

$1,663 Vol.

No

>3.4M

$1,016 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 29, 2026. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for 2.6M-2.8M TSA checkpoint passengers on March 29, 2026, following the official TSA release this morning confirming exactly 2,758,600 screenings—squarely within that bin. This positioning reflects the ground-truth data amid spring break demand, tempered by a protracted government shutdown now exceeding 40 days, which triggered widespread TSA sickouts (up to 40% at major hubs like Houston), record four-hour wait times, and year-over-year declines of around 9% as seen in late-March figures (e.g., March 26 at 2.72M). Absent rare data revisions, no realistic scenarios challenge this resolution, with volumes aligning to disrupted travel patterns versus pre-shutdown peaks near 3M.

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 29, 2026.

If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.

If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Volume
$18,641
End Date
Mar 29, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 5:55 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 29, 2026. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 29, 2026. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for 2.6M-2.8M TSA checkpoint passengers on March 29, 2026, following the official TSA release this morning confirming exactly 2,758,600 screenings—squarely within that bin. This positioning reflects the ground-truth data amid spring break demand, tempered by a protracted government shutdown now exceeding 40 days, which triggered widespread TSA sickouts (up to 40% at major hubs like Houston), record four-hour wait times, and year-over-year declines of around 9% as seen in late-March figures (e.g., March 26 at 2.72M). Absent rare data revisions, no realistic scenarios challenge this resolution, with volumes aligning to disrupted travel patterns versus pre-shutdown peaks near 3M.

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 29, 2026.

If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.

If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Volume
$18,641
End Date
Mar 29, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 5:55 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 29, 2026. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Number of TSA Passengers March 29?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2.6M-2.8M" at 100%, followed by "<2.6M" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Number of TSA Passengers March 29?" has generated $18.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Number of TSA Passengers March 29?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Number of TSA Passengers March 29?" is "2.6M-2.8M" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<2.6M" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Number of TSA Passengers March 29?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.