North Korea’s September 12 live-fire drill, which involved multiple short-range ballistic missiles launched from the Wonsan area alongside drones, cruise missiles, and rocket artillery, stands as the only confirmed ballistic missile event in the month to date. South Korean and U.S. tracking confirmed the salvo flew roughly 250 km, occurring shortly after trilateral U.S.-South Korea-Japan exercises that Pyongyang views as provocative. This latest action follows a pattern of periodic testing tied to regional military activity and stalled diplomacy, with North Korea’s state media framing it as an integrated strike demonstration rather than an isolated test. Trader consensus reflects the remaining half of September and historical frequency of follow-on launches, elevating the probabilities of one or two total events while assigning lower odds to three or more.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNumber of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?
Number of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?
1 45%
2 34%
3 17.4%
4+ 4.5%
$31,546 Vol.
$31,546 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1
1%
1
45%
2
34%
3
17%
4+
5%
1 45%
2 34%
3 17.4%
4+ 4.5%
$31,546 Vol.
$31,546 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1
$22,285 Vol.
1%
1
$3,744 Vol.
45%
2
$1,909 Vol.
34%
3
$1,540 Vol.
17%
4+
$2,067 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea’s September 12 live-fire drill, which involved multiple short-range ballistic missiles launched from the Wonsan area alongside drones, cruise missiles, and rocket artillery, stands as the only confirmed ballistic missile event in the month to date. South Korean and U.S. tracking confirmed the salvo flew roughly 250 km, occurring shortly after trilateral U.S.-South Korea-Japan exercises that Pyongyang views as provocative. This latest action follows a pattern of periodic testing tied to regional military activity and stalled diplomacy, with North Korea’s state media framing it as an integrated strike demonstration rather than an isolated test. Trader consensus reflects the remaining half of September and historical frequency of follow-on launches, elevating the probabilities of one or two total events while assigning lower odds to three or more.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$31,546End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea’s September 12 live-fire drill, which involved multiple short-range ballistic missiles launched from the Wonsan area alongside drones, cruise missiles, and rocket artillery, stands as the only confirmed ballistic missile event in the month to date. South Korean and U.S. tracking confirmed the salvo flew roughly 250 km, occurring shortly after trilateral U.S.-South Korea-Japan exercises that Pyongyang views as provocative. This latest action follows a pattern of periodic testing tied to regional military activity and stalled diplomacy, with North Korea’s state media framing it as an integrated strike demonstration rather than an isolated test. Trader consensus reflects the remaining half of September and historical frequency of follow-on launches, elevating the probabilities of one or two total events while assigning lower odds to three or more.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$31,546End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...North Korea’s September 12 live-fire drill, which involved multiple short-range ballistic missiles launched from the Wonsan area alongside drones, cruise missiles, and rocket artillery, stands as the only confirmed ballistic missile event in the month to date. South Korean and U.S. tracking confirmed the salvo flew roughly 250 km, occurring shortly after trilateral U.S.-South Korea-Japan exercises that Pyongyang views as provocative. This latest action follows a pattern of periodic testing tied to regional military activity and stalled diplomacy, with North Korea’s state media framing it as an integrated strike demonstration rather than an isolated test. Trader consensus reflects the remaining half of September and historical frequency of follow-on launches, elevating the probabilities of one or two total events while assigning lower odds to three or more.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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