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icon for No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
Politics·UK

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

icon for No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
Politics·UK

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

18% chance
Polymarket

$10,053 Vol.

18% chance
Polymarket

$10,053 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting. Labour's historic losses in early May 2026 local elections, where Reform UK surged by over 1,400 seats, have fueled an internal rebellion with over 80 MPs signing a letter urging Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign or set a departure timeline, alongside four ministerial resignations including Jess Phillips. The SNP's new Westminster leader Dave Doogan pledged yesterday to table a motion of no confidence via a King's Speech amendment unless Starmer steps down first, amplifying pressure amid speculation over Health Secretary Wes Streeting's potential exit. Yet trader consensus at 82% "No" reflects Labour's 174-seat parliamentary majority, Starmer's vow to fight on backed by 100+ MPs, and no formal motion tabled to date—procedural hurdles and party divisions make a vote by June 30 unlikely absent broader defections.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,053
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting. Labour's historic losses in early May 2026 local elections, where Reform UK surged by over 1,400 seats, have fueled an internal rebellion with over 80 MPs signing a letter urging Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign or set a departure timeline, alongside four ministerial resignations including Jess Phillips. The SNP's new Westminster leader Dave Doogan pledged yesterday to table a motion of no confidence via a King's Speech amendment unless Starmer steps down first, amplifying pressure amid speculation over Health Secretary Wes Streeting's potential exit. Yet trader consensus at 82% "No" reflects Labour's 174-seat parliamentary majority, Starmer's vow to fight on backed by 100+ MPs, and no formal motion tabled to date—procedural hurdles and party divisions make a vote by June 30 unlikely absent broader defections.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,053
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 18% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 18¢, the market collectively assigns a 18% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?" has generated $10.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?" is 18% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 18% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.