Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 100%, reflecting the absence of any confirmed in-person talks on May 10 amid stalled negotiations. President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest counter-proposal to a US ceasefire plan—delivered via Pakistani mediators—as "totally unacceptable," underscoring persistent divides over sanctions relief, nuclear enrichment, and Strait of Hormuz access. Indirect diplomacy through Qatar and Pakistan continues without breakthroughs, following April's Pakistan-hosted sessions and a fragile war ceasefire. While trader pricing embodies skin-in-the-game skepticism, a last-minute official announcement of direct engagement before midnight ET could challenge this, though recent rhetoric and naval tensions make it improbable. Upcoming Trump-Xi summit on May 14-15 may address Iran indirectly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNext US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?
No Meeting before May 11 100.0%
April 22 <1%
April 23 <1%
April 24 <1%
$1,993,985 Vol.
$1,993,985 Vol.
May 10, 2026
April 22
No
April 23
No
April 24
No
April 25
No
April 26
No
April 27
No
April 28
No
April 29
No
April 30
No
May 1
No
May 2
No
May 3
No
May 4
No
May 5
No
May 6
No
May 7
No
May 8
No
May 9
No
May 10
No
No Meeting before May 11
Yes
No Meeting before May 11 100.0%
April 22 <1%
April 23 <1%
April 24 <1%
$1,993,985 Vol.
$1,993,985 Vol.
May 10, 2026
April 22
$7,333 Vol.
No
April 23
$25,092 Vol.
No
April 24
$41,979 Vol.
No
April 25
$97,726 Vol.
No
April 26
$127,100 Vol.
No
April 27
$90,518 Vol.
No
April 28
$94,406 Vol.
No
April 29
$71,016 Vol.
No
April 30
$69,706 Vol.
No
May 1
$36,163 Vol.
No
May 2
$38,374 Vol.
No
May 3
$35,651 Vol.
No
May 4
$45,714 Vol.
No
May 5
$65,909 Vol.
No
May 6
$56,498 Vol.
No
May 7
$90,464 Vol.
No
May 8
$78,671 Vol.
No
May 9
$90,953 Vol.
No
May 10
$97,536 Vol.
No
No Meeting before May 11
$733,178 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 100%, reflecting the absence of any confirmed in-person talks on May 10 amid stalled negotiations. President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest counter-proposal to a US ceasefire plan—delivered via Pakistani mediators—as "totally unacceptable," underscoring persistent divides over sanctions relief, nuclear enrichment, and Strait of Hormuz access. Indirect diplomacy through Qatar and Pakistan continues without breakthroughs, following April's Pakistan-hosted sessions and a fragile war ceasefire. While trader pricing embodies skin-in-the-game skepticism, a last-minute official announcement of direct engagement before midnight ET could challenge this, though recent rhetoric and naval tensions make it improbable. Upcoming Trump-Xi summit on May 14-15 may address Iran indirectly.
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ET
Volume
$1,993,985End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 100%, reflecting the absence of any confirmed in-person talks on May 10 amid stalled negotiations. President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest counter-proposal to a US ceasefire plan—delivered via Pakistani mediators—as "totally unacceptable," underscoring persistent divides over sanctions relief, nuclear enrichment, and Strait of Hormuz access. Indirect diplomacy through Qatar and Pakistan continues without breakthroughs, following April's Pakistan-hosted sessions and a fragile war ceasefire. While trader pricing embodies skin-in-the-game skepticism, a last-minute official announcement of direct engagement before midnight ET could challenge this, though recent rhetoric and naval tensions make it improbable. Upcoming Trump-Xi summit on May 14-15 may address Iran indirectly.
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,993,985End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 100%, reflecting the absence of any confirmed in-person talks on May 10 amid stalled negotiations. President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest counter-proposal to a US ceasefire plan—delivered via Pakistani mediators—as "totally unacceptable," underscoring persistent divides over sanctions relief, nuclear enrichment, and Strait of Hormuz access. Indirect diplomacy through Qatar and Pakistan continues without breakthroughs, following April's Pakistan-hosted sessions and a fragile war ceasefire. While trader pricing embodies skin-in-the-game skepticism, a last-minute official announcement of direct engagement before midnight ET could challenge this, though recent rhetoric and naval tensions make it improbable. Upcoming Trump-Xi summit on May 14-15 may address Iran indirectly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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