Market icon
Politics·England

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Market icon
Politics·England

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

No Next PM in 2026 53%

Angela Rayner 19%

Wes Streeting 5%

Ed Miliband 4.0%

Polymarket

$4,512,491 Vol.

No Next PM in 2026 53%

Angela Rayner 19%

Wes Streeting 5%

Ed Miliband 4.0%

Polymarket

$4,512,491 Vol.

Market icon

No Next PM in 2026

$219,898 Vol.

53%

Market icon

Angela Rayner

$265,964 Vol.

19%

Market icon

Wes Streeting

$63,770 Vol.

5%

Market icon

Ed Miliband

$182,101 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Nigel Farage

$667,182 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Rupert Lowe

$575,328 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Andy Burnham

$297,982 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Shabana Mahmood

$203,070 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Yvette Cooper

$197,082 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Al Carns

$108,830 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Lucy Powell

$181,729 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Kemi Badenoch

$116,628 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Rachel Reeves

$365,265 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

David Lammy

$101,547 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Darren Jones

$127,721 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Boris Johnson

$161,608 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Ed Davey

$151,746 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Bridget Phillipson

$69,110 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Robert Jenrick

$249,892 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

James Cleverly

$206,037 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies a 53% chance of no new UK Prime Minister in 2026, as Keir Starmer weathers ongoing Labour leadership pressures without resigning or facing a successful no-confidence vote. Angela Rayner leads successors at 18.5% following her mid-March speeches declaring the party "running out of time" to deliver change, interpreted as a veiled challenge, and reports of her recent sobriety effort to bolster credentials. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar's March 24 call for Starmer's resignation amplified tensions, yet the PM pledged at an April 1 press conference to hold firm amid cost-of-living and foreign policy strains. Upcoming May 7 local elections loom as a pivotal test for party unity and polling recovery, keeping Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband as distant alternatives.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,512,491
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies a 53% chance of no new UK Prime Minister in 2026, as Keir Starmer weathers ongoing Labour leadership pressures without resigning or facing a successful no-confidence vote. Angela Rayner leads successors at 18.5% following her mid-March speeches declaring the party "running out of time" to deliver change, interpreted as a veiled challenge, and reports of her recent sobriety effort to bolster credentials. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar's March 24 call for Starmer's resignation amplified tensions, yet the PM pledged at an April 1 press conference to hold firm amid cost-of-living and foreign policy strains. Upcoming May 7 local elections loom as a pivotal test for party unity and polling recovery, keeping Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband as distant alternatives.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,512,491
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

Market icon

Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?

81%
Market icon

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

84%
Market icon

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

44%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Next PM in 2026" at 53%, followed by "Angela Rayner" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" has generated $4.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" is "No Next PM in 2026" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Angela Rayner" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.