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Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election?

$14,307,032 Vol.

Oct 20, 2025

Pierre Poilievre 54%

Mark Carney 46%

Chrystia Freeland <1%

Jagmeet Singh <1%

JanFebMar0%20%40%60%80%100%

Source: Polymarket.com

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

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Additional context

Updated Jan 14

Mark Carney has been added as an option to this market.

The next Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Carney is the next Prime Minister of Canada following the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any interim/caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next Prime Minister of Canada is instated by December 31, of 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume

$14,307,032

End Date

Oct 20, 2025

Comments (988)
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Justifax

Justifax

45m ago

Carney is very smart to push back on annexation comments and refuse to negotiate with Trump under those conditions. He's showing that Canada is strong and independent. PP will look very weak against Trump if he criticizes that. However, I am disappointed by Carney's international trip. It was a risk and I assumed there would be a win for taking that risk. I haven't seen one yet.

Agent357

36m ago

@Justifax

I was definitely something more to come from the European visit.

fahQ

1h ago

Must check out X for his anger problem about not disclosing his assets and Conflicts (Carney, I mean)

can anyone please lend me $4 to bet on something and win big?

mk27

3h ago

https://x.com/truckdriverpleb/status/1901755580881981462 2:10 Carney is a ticking time bomb who lacks the disposition required of a public servant

DJAliMan1

2h ago

@mk27

I hope he doesn't call an election. At this rate he's going to ruin his odds by a month from now

Agent357

1h ago

@mk27

What a thing so say about our beloved prime minister. I suggest you look inside yourself sir.

dududududude

3h ago

dededededelusion

clblockchain

3h ago

@dududududude

yup, maple maga coping, i will be adding no polievre daily

I am a moderate Democrat and I feel Canadians are crazy to not support Pierre who is such a smart common sense populist. It's insane. Tuck Frump for doing this shit.

PierrePoillievre

PierrePoillievre

10h ago

Trump should have waited

OHCANADA

11h ago

waiting for a cheque and putting it all on Pierre, this is the freest money I have ever seen.

PierrePoillievre

PierrePoillievre

14h ago

Carney Cabinet = Copy Paste.

hi-

23h ago

338Canada now project Liberals lead over Conservatives

Don.Nisal

Don.Nisal

1d ago

Whatever the polls say and whatever CBC shows, they don’t reach young voters or reflect their choices. Young voters will decide and give a clear mandate to the winner if any candidate influences them to vote. Poilievre could do it more easily than Carney. Personally, I like Carney because a smart businessman is more capable than a traditional politician of dealing with Trump.

PierrePoillievre

PierrePoillievre

1d ago

Sheeple..

My mother is dying. Please help me. I'm a failure. 0x090db032D61a0Bd5b37637202bd0aEC9ac909cb6 USDC via Polygon

Smong006

1d ago

Man, just imagine someone putting $50 on Freeland and by some magic she ends up returning and winning.... $25k !!

michelleoboma

michelleoboma

1d ago

because of trump crashing out on canada,canadian are too shy for admitting that theyre going to vote right in the coming election, surveys arent reliable right now.

wyn

wyn

1d ago

Carbon Tax Carney moved Brookfield headquarters to New York, wont disclose his financial assets... wonder why?? Complete lying scumbag. He is worse than Trudeau, as he is actually smart and wants to drive this country into the ground!!! Be cautious folks

Erich

1d ago

Didn’t Carney already win? Sorry I don’t understand Canadian politics

wyn

wyn

1d ago

Also, he says he cancelled the carbon tax, when he hasn’t, as it can only be done in parliament. Complete liar, the people are not brainwashed and still live in reality, there’s only one right answer, and thats PP!!!

@wyn

he reduced the carbox tax to 0% which is technically making the tax ineffective. You need an act of parliament to remove the tax, and people still need to get the rebate from last year.

wyn

wyn

1d ago

Mark carney is a lying scumbag. He’s worse than Trudeau. He has all his money in offshore accounts, took all his business to USA, and has zero personal investments in Canada. It’s like a CEO that doesn’t own shares in the company they’re running.

Guwop

Guwop

1d ago

If Mr. Poilievre takes office, perhaps he should look back to the policies of his predecessor, the first prime mininster of Canada, the Right Honourable Sir John A. Macdonald GCB PC QC.

Guwop

Guwop

1d ago

@Guwop

https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Alexander-Macdonald

Guwop

Guwop

1d ago

"The National Policy was a central economic and political strategy of the Conservative Party under Prime Minister John A. Macdonald, and many of his successors in high office. It meant that from 1878 until the Second World War, Canada levied high tariffs on foreign imported goods, to shield Canadian manufacturers from American competition."

Guwop

Guwop

1d ago

@Guwop

Brown, Robert Craig. "National Policy." The Canadian Encyclopedia. Historica Canada. Article published February 07, 2006; Last Edited March 04, 2015.

Guwop

Guwop

1d ago

"The Old Flag, The Old Policy, The Old Leader"

Guwop

Guwop

1d ago

@Guwop

https://d3d0lqu00lnqvz.cloudfront.net/media/media/3d796db1-587b-4b83-b948-3074a8fe7e80.jpg

BP3

BP3

1d ago

CPC and NDP: "The Liberal Party stands for nothing but power!" The LPC: "The Liberal Party stands for nothing but power!"

Guwop

Guwop

1d ago

@BP3

😂😂😂👍

0xlolnope

1d ago

New 338: LPC 150, CPC 149, BQ 27, NDP 15, GPC 2. Honeymoon bump for Carney isn't even in here yet and latest EKOS was not included in 338's aggregate for this round.

rhinez0r

1d ago

PP desperately trying to find a new rhyming political slogan

Agent357

1d ago

So the liberals are trying to say they got rid of the carbon tax. They didn't. That is a lie. You would know if the carbon tax was gone because you would see gas prices drop dramatically.

Trudeau and Poilievre are divisive character who have been playing identity politics to their base. One is supported by far left and another one is supported by far right. One loves apologizing and another one loves whining. Honestly, it would be nice to clean up the entire house and start everything over. And Singh is a useless piece of work.

Justifax

Justifax

2d ago

The problem is Pierre is a terrible candidate. He's like the right wing version of Trudeau. After Trudeau, I think there is a lack of appetite for unaccomplished leaders that have no gravitas.

Smong006

1d ago

@Justifax

PP isn't necessarily bad, but he is BORING. These days, people crave for a leader that isn't boring for some reason. This is sad, because I live PP's this attribute even if I kinda want Carney to win.

ggallin

2d ago

It was Pierre's Election to lose and he has crawled into a hole from being compared to Trump. The Liberal information monopoly has taken control of the PC partys message and Pierre is listening to advisors who operate in the past and can't adapt. He has shown his character of submission to the party and not leading it, he will still get votes but will flounder since the only way for him to win is to take control and make his win "To Big to RIG" , He seems like all he is going to do is coast and try to stay under the radar and continue to let his message be defined for him, its really demoralizing for so many Canadians who had hope in apple eating Pierre, that Pierre is gone

onatrio123321

2d ago

ezzz

Smong006

2d ago

People supporting CPC- Canada and USA have completely different systems like: winner take all EVs, two-party system and what not. I know you guys are coping but nobody experienced here is saying LPC is winning majority, just that CPC majority isn't happening (probably at this point).

Voting Carney 100%

I foresee the same trend here

Kamala peaked and never recovered

Agent357

2d ago

@Justinjoke

Thanks for sharing this. Its looking extremely similar. 😳

The us election was the same on polymarket lol

ray-jd7

2d ago

Hate to worry Canadians, but it's actually to Trump's advantage for the Liberals to stay in power. Only the NDP could do more damage to Canada's economy and keep the country weak and vulnerable to being at the mercy of Trump's whims. You may wonder why he is giving the Liberals so much ammo to try to hold onto power in another Liberal+NDP coalition. It doesn't help Trump at all for the Conservatives to win a majority and cut taxes and actually make Canada competitive for real investment again.

wyn

wyn

2d ago

Canadians still have common sense. They will not elect the liberals for a 4th consecutive term. PP will be our next PM!!!

wyn

wyn

2d ago

In June 2024 the Conservatives won Toronto St. Pauls, a Liberal seat for three decades, raising concerns about Trudeau’s leadership before the 2025 election. In September 2024 the Bloc Quebecois took LaSalle Emard Verdun in Montreal, another longtime Liberal stronghold, adding to doubts about Trudeau and the party’s future.

BP3

BP3

2d ago

Carney canceled the carbon tax (when Pierre based his whole media circus around Axe the Tax). EKOS has the Liberals with a +18 lead. 🤡🎪

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Mark Carney

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