Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Péter Magyar's swearing-in as Hungary's prime minister on May 9, 2026, following his Tisza party's supermajority victory (141 seats) in the April 12 parliamentary election, has driven trader consensus to 100% certainty on Polymarket. This landslide ousted Viktor Orbán after 16 years, propelled by voter backlash against economic woes, corruption allegations, and EU tensions, enabling swift National Assembly convening and government formation within constitutional timelines. With Tisza's dominance securing legislative control, challenges like a no-confidence vote or resignation appear remote absent extraordinary developments such as health crises, scandals, or legal challenges to the election results. Upcoming cabinet confirmations and policy rollout could further solidify his position.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Péter Magyar's swearing-in as Hungary's prime minister on May 9, 2026, following his Tisza party's supermajority victory (141 seats) in the April 12 parliamentary election, has driven trader consensus to 100% certainty on Polymarket. This landslide ousted Viktor Orbán after 16 years, propelled by voter backlash against economic woes, corruption allegations, and EU tensions, enabling swift National Assembly convening and government formation within constitutional timelines. With Tisza's dominance securing legislative control, challenges like a no-confidence vote or resignation appear remote absent extraordinary developments such as health crises, scandals, or legal challenges to the election results. Upcoming cabinet confirmations and policy rollout could further solidify his position.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 1 2026
Toroczkai accuses Prime‑Minister‑designate Magyar Péter of nepotism after the latter appoints his brother‑in‑law as justice minister, underscoring Toroczkai’s opposition rather
Toroczkai accuses Prime‑Minister‑designate Magyar Péter of nepotism after the latter appoints his brother‑in‑law as justice minister, underscoring Toroczkai’s opposition rather than a leadership bid
Apr 15 2026
After the election, Toroczkai reacted negatively to the results and announced he would appeal the vote count to the European Court of Human Rights, confirming he was not in
László Toroczkai dips to 0%3%
After the election, Toroczkai reacted negatively to the results and announced he would appeal the vote count to the European Court of Human Rights, confirming he was not in contention for the premiership
Apr 12 2026
Hungarian parliamentary elections held; Tisza Party wins but Péter Magyar confirmed as Prime Minister, not Kapitány
Following the elections, Péter Magyar was officially appointed Prime Minister, confirming that Kapitány would not assume the premiership, solidifying the zero
Apr 12 2026
Hungarian parliamentary election results show Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party winning a landslide;
Viktor Orbán plunges to 0%37%
Orbán concedes defeat and congratulates his rival on live TV
Apr 12 2026
Péter Magyar wins a landslide victory in the Hungarian parliamentary election, ending Viktor Orbán's 16 years in power;
Viktor Orbán dips to 0%4%
Orbán concedes defeat by phone
Apr 12 2026
Toroczkai congratulates Facebook for “delivering the first Hungarian prime minister” and stresses that the Tisza Party will “return to power,” but offers no concrete claim to the
Toroczkai congratulates Facebook for “delivering the first Hungarian prime minister” and stresses that the Tisza Party will “return to power,” but offers no concrete claim to the premiership himself
Mar 20 2026
Péter Magyar announces Kapitány will serve as Minister of Economy and Energetics in the prospective Tisza government
István Kapitány dips to 0%1%
Despite the ministerial appointment announcement, market confidence in Kapitány becoming Prime Minister diminished, as he was designated for a ministerial role rather than the premiership, leading to a collapse in his market
Mar 6 2026
Serbian police seize 4 kg of explosives near the TurkStream pipeline;
Viktor Orbán dips to 34%3%
Orbán and Foreign Minister Szijjártó blame Ukraine, but the timing is seen as a last‑minute smear, causing a modest
Feb 11 2026
Media scrutiny highlights Kapitány’s controversial past with Shell’s operations in Nigeria and environmental criticisms
István Kapitány dips to 3%2%
Reports surfaced detailing Kapitány’s involvement in Shell’s projects in Nigeria’s Niger Delta during the 1990s, including links to environmental damage and the repression of activists, which cast doubts on his political viability and ethics.
Jan 15 2026
István Kapitány appointed economic advisor to Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party ahead of the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elections
István Kapitány rises to 5%4%
Kapitány, former Shell Global Executive Vice President, joined the Tisza Party as chief economic and energy expert, signaling his entry into politics and raising his profile as a potential candidate in the upcoming elections.
Oct 16 2025
Orbán announces preparations for a 2025 Russia‑U.S.
summit after a phone call with Donald Trump, drawing backlash over his Russia‑friendly stance
Sep 1 2025
Toroczkai held his final campaign rally in Budapest;
László Toroczkai dips to 0%1%
media coverage noted his party’s polling at 4‑5 % and the likelihood of missing the parliamentary threshold
Aug 20 2025
Péter Magyar holds a major demonstration in Pannonhalma, announcing a new ten-point program outlining his party’s priorities for the upcoming political season, signaling growing
Péter Magyar rises to 57%3%
Péter Magyar holds a major demonstration in Pannonhalma, announcing a new ten-point program outlining his party’s priorities for the upcoming political season, signaling growing opposition momentum
Aug 13 2025
| Russian SVR accuses EU of targeting Hungary;
Péter Magyar rises to 56%1%
Magyar publicly rebuffs Russian interference, boosting his anti‑foreign‑influence image |
Jul 24 2025
Hungarian President Tamás Sulyok officially set the parliamentary election for 12 April 2026, signalling the end of the pre‑election window for a surprise surge by Toroczkai’s Our
László Toroczkai plunges to 1%49%
Hungarian President Tamás Sulyok officially set the parliamentary election for 12 April 2026, signalling the end of the pre‑election window for a surprise surge by Toroczkai’s Our Homeland Movement
May 9 2025
Prime Minister Orbán delivers the "Tihany Speech," expressing support for Romanian presidential candidate George Simion, sparking criticism and political tension in the Hungarian
Péter Magyar rises to 54%4%
Prime Minister Orbán delivers the "Tihany Speech," expressing support for Romanian presidential candidate George Simion, sparking criticism and political tension in the Hungarian minority community
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Péter Magyar's swearing-in as Hungary's prime minister on May 9, 2026, following his Tisza party's supermajority victory (141 seats) in the April 12 parliamentary election, has driven trader consensus to 100% certainty on Polymarket. This landslide ousted Viktor Orbán after 16 years, propelled by voter backlash against economic woes, corruption allegations, and EU tensions, enabling swift National Assembly convening and government formation within constitutional timelines. With Tisza's dominance securing legislative control, challenges like a no-confidence vote or resignation appear remote absent extraordinary developments such as health crises, scandals, or legal challenges to the election results. Upcoming cabinet confirmations and policy rollout could further solidify his position.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Péter Magyar's swearing-in as Hungary's prime minister on May 9, 2026, following his Tisza party's supermajority victory (141 seats) in the April 12 parliamentary election, has driven trader consensus to 100% certainty on Polymarket. This landslide ousted Viktor Orbán after 16 years, propelled by voter backlash against economic woes, corruption allegations, and EU tensions, enabling swift National Assembly convening and government formation within constitutional timelines. With Tisza's dominance securing legislative control, challenges like a no-confidence vote or resignation appear remote absent extraordinary developments such as health crises, scandals, or legal challenges to the election results. Upcoming cabinet confirmations and policy rollout could further solidify his position.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 1 2026
Toroczkai accuses Prime‑Minister‑designate Magyar Péter of nepotism after the latter appoints his brother‑in‑law as justice minister, underscoring Toroczkai’s opposition rather
Toroczkai accuses Prime‑Minister‑designate Magyar Péter of nepotism after the latter appoints his brother‑in‑law as justice minister, underscoring Toroczkai’s opposition rather than a leadership bid
Apr 15 2026
After the election, Toroczkai reacted negatively to the results and announced he would appeal the vote count to the European Court of Human Rights, confirming he was not in
László Toroczkai dips to 0%3%
After the election, Toroczkai reacted negatively to the results and announced he would appeal the vote count to the European Court of Human Rights, confirming he was not in contention for the premiership
Apr 12 2026
Hungarian parliamentary elections held; Tisza Party wins but Péter Magyar confirmed as Prime Minister, not Kapitány
Following the elections, Péter Magyar was officially appointed Prime Minister, confirming that Kapitány would not assume the premiership, solidifying the zero
Apr 12 2026
Hungarian parliamentary election results show Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party winning a landslide;
Viktor Orbán plunges to 0%37%
Orbán concedes defeat and congratulates his rival on live TV
Apr 12 2026
Péter Magyar wins a landslide victory in the Hungarian parliamentary election, ending Viktor Orbán's 16 years in power;
Viktor Orbán dips to 0%4%
Orbán concedes defeat by phone
Apr 12 2026
Toroczkai congratulates Facebook for “delivering the first Hungarian prime minister” and stresses that the Tisza Party will “return to power,” but offers no concrete claim to the
Toroczkai congratulates Facebook for “delivering the first Hungarian prime minister” and stresses that the Tisza Party will “return to power,” but offers no concrete claim to the premiership himself
Mar 20 2026
Péter Magyar announces Kapitány will serve as Minister of Economy and Energetics in the prospective Tisza government
István Kapitány dips to 0%1%
Despite the ministerial appointment announcement, market confidence in Kapitány becoming Prime Minister diminished, as he was designated for a ministerial role rather than the premiership, leading to a collapse in his market
Mar 6 2026
Serbian police seize 4 kg of explosives near the TurkStream pipeline;
Viktor Orbán dips to 34%3%
Orbán and Foreign Minister Szijjártó blame Ukraine, but the timing is seen as a last‑minute smear, causing a modest
Feb 11 2026
Media scrutiny highlights Kapitány’s controversial past with Shell’s operations in Nigeria and environmental criticisms
István Kapitány dips to 3%2%
Reports surfaced detailing Kapitány’s involvement in Shell’s projects in Nigeria’s Niger Delta during the 1990s, including links to environmental damage and the repression of activists, which cast doubts on his political viability and ethics.
Jan 15 2026
István Kapitány appointed economic advisor to Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party ahead of the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elections
István Kapitány rises to 5%4%
Kapitány, former Shell Global Executive Vice President, joined the Tisza Party as chief economic and energy expert, signaling his entry into politics and raising his profile as a potential candidate in the upcoming elections.
Oct 16 2025
Orbán announces preparations for a 2025 Russia‑U.S.
summit after a phone call with Donald Trump, drawing backlash over his Russia‑friendly stance
Sep 1 2025
Toroczkai held his final campaign rally in Budapest;
László Toroczkai dips to 0%1%
media coverage noted his party’s polling at 4‑5 % and the likelihood of missing the parliamentary threshold
Aug 20 2025
Péter Magyar holds a major demonstration in Pannonhalma, announcing a new ten-point program outlining his party’s priorities for the upcoming political season, signaling growing
Péter Magyar rises to 57%3%
Péter Magyar holds a major demonstration in Pannonhalma, announcing a new ten-point program outlining his party’s priorities for the upcoming political season, signaling growing opposition momentum
Aug 13 2025
| Russian SVR accuses EU of targeting Hungary;
Péter Magyar rises to 56%1%
Magyar publicly rebuffs Russian interference, boosting his anti‑foreign‑influence image |
Jul 24 2025
Hungarian President Tamás Sulyok officially set the parliamentary election for 12 April 2026, signalling the end of the pre‑election window for a surprise surge by Toroczkai’s Our
László Toroczkai plunges to 1%49%
Hungarian President Tamás Sulyok officially set the parliamentary election for 12 April 2026, signalling the end of the pre‑election window for a surprise surge by Toroczkai’s Our Homeland Movement
May 9 2025
Prime Minister Orbán delivers the "Tihany Speech," expressing support for Romanian presidential candidate George Simion, sparking criticism and political tension in the Hungarian
Péter Magyar rises to 54%4%
Prime Minister Orbán delivers the "Tihany Speech," expressing support for Romanian presidential candidate George Simion, sparking criticism and political tension in the Hungarian minority community
"Next Prime Minister of Hungary" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Péter Magyar" at 100%, followed by "Viktor Orbán" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" has generated $101.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Hungary," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" is "Péter Magyar" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Viktor Orbán" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Next Prime Minister of Hungary." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $101.1 million traded on “Next Prime Minister of Hungary,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Next Prime Minister of Hungary," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "Péter Magyar" in the "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "Péter Magyar" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.
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