**Ulrich Siegmund (AfD) leads the market at 71.5% as the frontrunner to become the next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt.** The AfD secured a decisive victory in the September 6, 2026, Landtag election with 43.8% of the vote and 39 seats in the 83-member parliament, falling short of an absolute majority. Siegmund, the party's co-leader and top candidate, is scheduled to stand for election on December 15, needing at least 42 votes in the first round. Recent developments center on coalition-building efforts and procedural maneuvers: the CDU announced in mid-October it will vacate the chamber during the vote to block any support, while the BSW has signaled abstention. However, the AfD's Tobias Rausch won the Landtag presidency with four extra votes beyond the party's bloc, indicating potential cross-party backing in secret ballots. Siegmund has emphasized ongoing intensive talks with other deputies and expressed confidence in securing the required support in the first round. Other named candidates, primarily from the CDU, SPD, and smaller parties, carry low implied probabilities consistent with the AfD's electoral dominance and the absence of viable alternative coalitions. The market reflects trader assessment of these parliamentary dynamics ahead of the December vote.