Ulrich Siegmund leads the market at 79.5% as the AfD's Spitzenkandidat after his party secured 43.8% and 39 of 83 Landtag seats in the September 2026 election, making it the largest bloc. He has announced his intention to stand for Ministerpräsident in the December session, seeking cross-faction support or individual votes to reach the 42-seat absolute majority required in the first two rounds under the state constitution. Other listed candidates remain at low single digits or placeholder levels because no alternative has secured comparable backing, though ongoing talks among SPD, Grüne, Linke, and BSW about an überparteilichen option and BSW's stated intent to abstain continue to shape trader assessments of the three-round voting process.