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Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

icon for Next French Presidential Election
Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Jordan Bardella 26%

Édouard Philippe 21%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$100,608,468 Vol.

Jordan Bardella 26%

Édouard Philippe 21%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$100,608,468 Vol.

icon for Jordan Bardella

Jordan Bardella

$1,125,692 Vol.

26%

icon for Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe

$937,234 Vol.

21%

icon for Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$727,377 Vol.

13%

icon for Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen

$804,479 Vol.

8%

icon for Gabriel Attal

Gabriel Attal

$1,640,726 Vol.

4%

icon for Dominique de Villepin

Dominique de Villepin

$1,397,642 Vol.

4%

icon for François Hollande

François Hollande

$1,177,971 Vol.

3%

icon for David Lisnard

David Lisnard

$1,363,491 Vol.

2%

icon for Raphaël Glucksmann

Raphaël Glucksmann

$1,153,389 Vol.

2%

icon for Bruno Retailleau

Bruno Retailleau

$1,572,276 Vol.

2%

icon for Sarah Knafo

Sarah Knafo

$1,455,847 Vol.

1%

icon for Éric Zemmour

Éric Zemmour

$1,675,817 Vol.

1%

icon for Laurent Wauquiez

Laurent Wauquiez

$3,144,739 Vol.

1%

icon for Sébastien Lecornu

Sébastien Lecornu

$1,089,131 Vol.

1%

icon for Michel Barnier

Michel Barnier

$4,714,807 Vol.

1%

icon for Gérald Darmanin

Gérald Darmanin

$1,487,413 Vol.

1%

icon for Bernard Cazeneuve

Bernard Cazeneuve

$1,646,839 Vol.

1%

icon for Fabien Roussel

Fabien Roussel

$3,390,098 Vol.

1%

icon for François Asselineau

François Asselineau

$5,021,472 Vol.

1%

icon for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$3,888,756 Vol.

1%

icon for Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse

$3,544,677 Vol.

1%

icon for Élisabeth Borne

Élisabeth Borne

$4,759,466 Vol.

1%

icon for Jean Castex

Jean Castex

$936,849 Vol.

1%

icon for Carole Delga

Carole Delga

$3,976,882 Vol.

1%

icon for Manuel Bompard

Manuel Bompard

$4,165,235 Vol.

1%

icon for Juan Branco

Juan Branco

$1,567,835 Vol.

1%

icon for Xavier Bertrand

Xavier Bertrand

$4,598,191 Vol.

1%

icon for François Ruffin

François Ruffin

$2,638,515 Vol.

1%

icon for Marine Tondelier

Marine Tondelier

$3,075,501 Vol.

1%

icon for Olivier Faure

Olivier Faure

$4,479,328 Vol.

1%

icon for Ségolène Royal

Ségolène Royal

$4,470,289 Vol.

1%

icon for Clémentine Autain

Clémentine Autain

$4,016,596 Vol.

1%

icon for François Bayrou

François Bayrou

$4,914,217 Vol.

1%

icon for Yaël Braun-Pivet

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$4,965,493 Vol.

1%

icon for Mathilde Panot

Mathilde Panot

$5,491,854 Vol.

1%

icon for Clémence Guetté

Clémence Guetté

$3,595,340 Vol.

1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Jordan Bardella leads trader pricing at 25.5% due to National Rally strength and Marine Le Pen’s pending July 2026 appeal on her embezzlement conviction, which could bar her candidacy and cement his position as the party’s standard-bearer. Édouard Philippe trails closely at 20.5% as the leading center-right alternative to Macron-era fatigue, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s left-wing surge to 12.5% reflects ongoing bloc fragmentation. A crowded field of declared and potential candidates, combined with center-right rivalries and uncertain left unity ahead of an October 2026 primary, sustains the tight contest. Further separation could emerge from the appeal ruling, candidate withdrawals, or shifts in polling around economic conditions and alliances before the April 2027 first round.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$100,608,468
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Jordan Bardella leads trader pricing at 25.5% due to National Rally strength and Marine Le Pen’s pending July 2026 appeal on her embezzlement conviction, which could bar her candidacy and cement his position as the party’s standard-bearer. Édouard Philippe trails closely at 20.5% as the leading center-right alternative to Macron-era fatigue, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s left-wing surge to 12.5% reflects ongoing bloc fragmentation. A crowded field of declared and potential candidates, combined with center-right rivalries and uncertain left unity ahead of an October 2026 primary, sustains the tight contest. Further separation could emerge from the appeal ruling, candidate withdrawals, or shifts in polling around economic conditions and alliances before the April 2027 first round.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$100,608,468
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Related

icon for Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?

Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?

70%
icon for Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

76%
icon for French election called by June 30, 2026?

French election called by June 30, 2026?

1%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 26%, followed by "Édouard Philippe" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $100.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Jordan Bardella" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.