Anthropic's decision to advance its higher-tier models—releasing Sonnet 5, Opus 5, Fable 5.1, and Mythos 5.1 in 2026—while leaving the Haiku line at the October 2025 Claude Haiku 4.5 release has become the main driver of trader sentiment on the next Haiku timing. The current fast, low-cost model maintains a 200K context window and competitive performance on coding and agent tasks, yet its knowledge cutoff and retirement floor near mid-October 2026 create pressure for a successor such as Haiku 4.6 or 5.0. Separate release cadences across tiers, combined with competitive moves from OpenAI and Google on efficient large language models, suggest Anthropic may prioritize a Haiku update before year-end to sustain its cost-sensitive user base and API volume. No official timeline or benchmark previews have surfaced, leaving resolution dependent on upcoming developer conferences or earnings commentary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Oct 15, 2026
October 15
27%
October 31
61%
December 31
61%
$9,502 Vol.
October 15
$204 Vol.
27%
October 31
$987 Vol.
61%
December 31
$4,559 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's decision to advance its higher-tier models—releasing Sonnet 5, Opus 5, Fable 5.1, and Mythos 5.1 in 2026—while leaving the Haiku line at the October 2025 Claude Haiku 4.5 release has become the main driver of trader sentiment on the next Haiku timing. The current fast, low-cost model maintains a 200K context window and competitive performance on coding and agent tasks, yet its knowledge cutoff and retirement floor near mid-October 2026 create pressure for a successor such as Haiku 4.6 or 5.0. Separate release cadences across tiers, combined with competitive moves from OpenAI and Google on efficient large language models, suggest Anthropic may prioritize a Haiku update before year-end to sustain its cost-sensitive user base and API volume. No official timeline or benchmark previews have surfaced, leaving resolution dependent on upcoming developer conferences or earnings commentary.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 9:07 AM ET
Volume
$9,502End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 9:07 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's decision to advance its higher-tier models—releasing Sonnet 5, Opus 5, Fable 5.1, and Mythos 5.1 in 2026—while leaving the Haiku line at the October 2025 Claude Haiku 4.5 release has become the main driver of trader sentiment on the next Haiku timing. The current fast, low-cost model maintains a 200K context window and competitive performance on coding and agent tasks, yet its knowledge cutoff and retirement floor near mid-October 2026 create pressure for a successor such as Haiku 4.6 or 5.0. Separate release cadences across tiers, combined with competitive moves from OpenAI and Google on efficient large language models, suggest Anthropic may prioritize a Haiku update before year-end to sustain its cost-sensitive user base and API volume. No official timeline or benchmark previews have surfaced, leaving resolution dependent on upcoming developer conferences or earnings commentary.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,502End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 9:07 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's decision to advance its higher-tier models—releasing Sonnet 5, Opus 5, Fable 5.1, and Mythos 5.1 in 2026—while leaving the Haiku line at the October 2025 Claude Haiku 4.5 release has become the main driver of trader sentiment on the next Haiku timing. The current fast, low-cost model maintains a 200K context window and competitive performance on coding and agent tasks, yet its knowledge cutoff and retirement floor near mid-October 2026 create pressure for a successor such as Haiku 4.6 or 5.0. Separate release cadences across tiers, combined with competitive moves from OpenAI and Google on efficient large language models, suggest Anthropic may prioritize a Haiku update before year-end to sustain its cost-sensitive user base and API volume. No official timeline or benchmark previews have surfaced, leaving resolution dependent on upcoming developer conferences or earnings commentary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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