Israel’s October 27, 2026, legislative election is the dominant near-term driver for the “Netanyahu out by end of 2026” market. Recent polls show Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc and the opposition bloc headed by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party both falling short of the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority, with averages around 50–55 seats each. This deadlock raises the prospect of Netanyahu continuing as caretaker prime minister while coalition talks or new elections unfold, reducing the likelihood of his departure by December 31. Key variables include whether smaller right-wing parties clear the threshold, Arab-party support dynamics, and any post-election unity-government overtures. Traders price the Yes side near 40 percent, reflecting the structural barriers to a swift exit despite ongoing security and corruption pressures.