Klay Thompson's buyout from the Dallas Mavericks and subsequent agreement on a two-year, roughly $11.5–13 million deal with the Miami Heat have driven the overwhelming trader consensus toward that outcome. The 36-year-old sharpshooter prioritized a contending roster featuring Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo, where his perimeter spacing and veteran presence address specific needs after Miami's roster overhaul. Personal factors including location appeal and a willingness to accept a reduced salary to fit under the hard cap further aligned the sides, with the Heat having targeted him as a top priority throughout the summer. While the signing appears finalized following waiver clearance, late roster adjustments, an unexpected injury, or unforeseen contract complications remain the only realistic paths that could shift the implied probability away from Miami.