Nashville SC’s league-best 60 points and +34 goal difference from an 18-3-6 record anchor its 17.9% implied probability, reflecting sustained defensive organization and clinical finishing led by Sam Surridge. Vancouver Whitecaps sit atop the West at 50 points with a +33 differential, their 15-6-5 mark and balanced attack featuring Brian White fueling the highest 21.3% consensus. Inter Miami’s 46 points and league-leading 64 goals keep its 16.0% share competitive despite more draws. With playoffs looming and multiple teams within striking distance in both conferences, the bunched probabilities capture how minor shifts in form, home results, or injury absences could alter paths to MLS Cup.