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icon for MLB: Home Runs Leader
Sports·MLB

MLB: Home Runs Leader

icon for MLB: Home Runs Leader
Sports·MLB

MLB: Home Runs Leader

Kyle Schwarber 53%

Pete Crow-Armstrong 39%

Junior Caminero 2.4%

Hunter Goodman 1.0%

Polymarket

$3,194,614 Vol.

Kyle Schwarber 53%

Pete Crow-Armstrong 39%

Junior Caminero 2.4%

Hunter Goodman 1.0%

Polymarket

$3,194,614 Vol.

Kyle Schwarber

$50,163 Vol.

53%

Pete Crow-Armstrong

$514 Vol.

32%

Junior Caminero

$5,307 Vol.

2%

Hunter Goodman

$48 Vol.

1%

Matt Olson

$5,408 Vol.

1%

Ben Rice

$3,542 Vol.

1%

Yordan Alvarez

$15,002 Vol.

<1%

Aaron Judge

$4,680 Vol.

<1%

Shohei Ohtani

$2,985 Vol.

<1%

Cal Raleigh

$772 Vol.

<1%

Eugenio Suarez

$922 Vol.

<1%

Juan Soto

$649,418 Vol.

<1%

Pete Alonso

$476 Vol.

<1%

Nick Kurtz

$1,516 Vol.

<1%

Rafael Devers

$659 Vol.

<1%

George Springer

$535 Vol.

<1%

Giancarlo Stanton

$664 Vol.

<1%

Mike Trout

$1,749,624 Vol.

<1%

Manny Machado

$547 Vol.

<1%

James Wood

$9,509 Vol.

<1%

Munetaka Murakami

$10,732 Vol.

<1%

Jordan Walker

$734 Vol.

<1%

Brandon Lowe

$471,292 Vol.

<1%

Sal Stewart

$827 Vol.

<1%

CJ Abrams

$206,030 Vol.

<1%

Elly De La Cruz

$1,370 Vol.

<1%

Shea Langeliers

$1,341 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Kyle Schwarber and Pete Crow-Armstrong remain locked in a tight race for the MLB home run crown, tied at 45 apiece with only a handful of regular-season games left.** Schwarber’s edge in implied probability reflects his veteran consistency, favorable remaining schedule with the Phillies, and proven late-season power output. Crow-Armstrong’s 32% share stems from his strong recent surge—including multiple multi-homer games—and continued opportunities in the Cubs lineup, though he trails slightly in overall experience at this stage. The steep drop-off to Junior Caminero (41 HR) and others underscores how far behind the field sits, with little realistic path to close the gap before the season ends. Trader consensus prices these two well ahead based on current totals, pace, and schedule context.

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,194,614
End Date
Oct 16, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Kyle Schwarber and Pete Crow-Armstrong remain locked in a tight race for the MLB home run crown, tied at 45 apiece with only a handful of regular-season games left.** Schwarber’s edge in implied probability reflects his veteran consistency, favorable remaining schedule with the Phillies, and proven late-season power output. Crow-Armstrong’s 32% share stems from his strong recent surge—including multiple multi-homer games—and continued opportunities in the Cubs lineup, though he trails slightly in overall experience at this stage. The steep drop-off to Junior Caminero (41 HR) and others underscores how far behind the field sits, with little realistic path to close the gap before the season ends. Trader consensus prices these two well ahead based on current totals, pace, and schedule context.

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,194,614
End Date
Oct 16, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: Home Runs Leader" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 27 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kyle Schwarber" at 53%, followed by "Pete Crow-Armstrong" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: Home Runs Leader" has generated $3.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: Home Runs Leader," browse the 27 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: Home Runs Leader" is "Kyle Schwarber" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Pete Crow-Armstrong" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: Home Runs Leader" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.