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Sports·MLB

MLB: Home Runs Leader

icon for MLB: Home Runs Leader
Sports·MLB

MLB: Home Runs Leader

Yordan Alvarez 38.0%

Kyle Schwarber 29%

Junior Caminero 14.8%

Matt Olson 7.9%

Polymarket

$3,120,561 Vol.

Yordan Alvarez 38.0%

Kyle Schwarber 29%

Junior Caminero 14.8%

Matt Olson 7.9%

Polymarket

$3,120,561 Vol.

Yordan Alvarez

$7,690 Vol.

38%

Kyle Schwarber

$17,232 Vol.

29%

Junior Caminero

$1,169 Vol.

15%

Matt Olson

$1,913 Vol.

12%

James Wood

$1,896 Vol.

7%

Ben Rice

$1,298 Vol.

10%

Munetaka Murakami

$7,775 Vol.

2%

Nick Kurtz

$1,336 Vol.

1%

Brandon Lowe

$469,417 Vol.

1%

Rafael Devers

$590 Vol.

<1%

Mike Trout

$1,747,629 Vol.

<1%

Shohei Ohtani

$623 Vol.

<1%

Aaron Judge

$4,680 Vol.

<1%

Eugenio Suarez

$569 Vol.

<1%

Cal Raleigh

$663 Vol.

<1%

Sal Stewart

$600 Vol.

<1%

Juan Soto

$647,543 Vol.

<1%

CJ Abrams

$203,224 Vol.

<1%

Pete Alonso

$368 Vol.

<1%

Giancarlo Stanton

$560 Vol.

<1%

Jordan Walker

$556 Vol.

<1%

Elly De La Cruz

$835 Vol.

<1%

George Springer

$508 Vol.

<1%

Shea Langeliers

$1,341 Vol.

<1%

Manny Machado

$547 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Yordan Alvarez holds the 2026 MLB home run lead with 35 through early August, ahead of a group at 33 including Kyle Schwarber, Matt Olson, Junior Caminero, and Hunter Goodman, which underpins his 38% implied probability in the market. Schwarber’s early-season pace and consistent power output support his second-place positioning at nearly 30%. Young sluggers like Caminero and Ben Rice have climbed into contention with strong recent production, reflected in their 13–15% range, while established bats such as Olson benefit from steady at-bats in favorable lineups. With roughly 40–50 games remaining, Alvarez’s edge stems from his current margin and batting-order role, though late surges or injury developments could narrow gaps among the top contenders.

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,120,561
End Date
Sep 28, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Yordan Alvarez holds the 2026 MLB home run lead with 35 through early August, ahead of a group at 33 including Kyle Schwarber, Matt Olson, Junior Caminero, and Hunter Goodman, which underpins his 38% implied probability in the market. Schwarber’s early-season pace and consistent power output support his second-place positioning at nearly 30%. Young sluggers like Caminero and Ben Rice have climbed into contention with strong recent production, reflected in their 13–15% range, while established bats such as Olson benefit from steady at-bats in favorable lineups. With roughly 40–50 games remaining, Alvarez’s edge stems from his current margin and batting-order role, though late surges or injury developments could narrow gaps among the top contenders.

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,120,561
End Date
Sep 28, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: Home Runs Leader" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Yordan Alvarez" at 38%, followed by "Kyle Schwarber" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: Home Runs Leader" has generated $3.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: Home Runs Leader," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: Home Runs Leader" is "Yordan Alvarez" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kyle Schwarber" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: Home Runs Leader" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.