**Willson Contreras and Ben Rice lead trader consensus at 73% implied probability each, driven by their standout 2026 power production and recent All-Star nods.** Contreras has posted a .287/.381/.545 slash line with 20 home runs for the Red Sox through early July, while Rice has belted 26 homers for the Yankees amid elite batted-ball metrics. Field announcements over the past week, including Junior Caminero, Jac Caglianone, Jordan Walker, and hometown Phillies star Bryce Harper at Citizens Bank Park, have introduced depth that keeps the market competitive. Caminero’s prior Derby experience and Walker’s breakout add realistic upset paths, resulting in bunched probabilities around the 49-50% range for several entrants and reflecting the format’s volatility across three rounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJordan Walker 100.0%
Willson Contreras <1%
Ben Rice <1%
Junior Caminero <1%
$1,668,801 Vol.
$1,668,801 Vol.
Willson Contreras
No
Ben Rice
No
Junior Caminero
No
Jac Caglianone
No
Jordan Walker
Yes
Bryce Harper
No
Kyle Schwarber
No
Munetaka Murakami
No
Jordan Walker 100.0%
Willson Contreras <1%
Ben Rice <1%
Junior Caminero <1%
$1,668,801 Vol.
$1,668,801 Vol.
Willson Contreras
No
Ben Rice
No
Junior Caminero
No
Jac Caglianone
No
Jordan Walker
Yes
Bryce Harper
No
Kyle Schwarber
No
Munetaka Murakami
No
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby per the rules set by the competition (e.g., disqualification, player withdraws), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed past July 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the MLB.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 12:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby per the rules set by the competition (e.g., disqualification, player withdraws), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed past July 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the MLB.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Willson Contreras and Ben Rice lead trader consensus at 73% implied probability each, driven by their standout 2026 power production and recent All-Star nods.** Contreras has posted a .287/.381/.545 slash line with 20 home runs for the Red Sox through early July, while Rice has belted 26 homers for the Yankees amid elite batted-ball metrics. Field announcements over the past week, including Junior Caminero, Jac Caglianone, Jordan Walker, and hometown Phillies star Bryce Harper at Citizens Bank Park, have introduced depth that keeps the market competitive. Caminero’s prior Derby experience and Walker’s breakout add realistic upset paths, resulting in bunched probabilities around the 49-50% range for several entrants and reflecting the format’s volatility across three rounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions