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MLB Home Run Derby 2026: Player to Advance To Semifinals

icon for MLB Home Run Derby 2026: Player to Advance To Semifinals

MLB Home Run Derby 2026: Player to Advance To Semifinals

$16,035 Vol.

Jul 13, 2026
Polymarket

$16,035 Vol.

Polymarket

Munetaka Murakami

$50 Vol.

No

Willson Contreras

$670 Vol.

Yes

Ben Rice

$10,981 Vol.

No

Junior Caminero

$1,530 Vol.

Yes

Jac Caglianone

$509 Vol.

No

Jordan Walker

$1,221 Vol.

Yes

Bryce Harper

$769 Vol.

No

Kyle Schwarber

$306 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby per the rules of the competition. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after July 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Semifinals have not been officially confirmed by the MLB within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 T-Mobile Home Run Derby at Citizens Bank Park features a restructured eight-player field and swing-based format emphasizing efficiency over endurance, with 20 swings in Round 1 and the top four advancing to semifinals. Announced participants include Bryce Harper, whose local fan support and recent power output could influence outcomes in front of the Phillies crowd, alongside power leaders Junior Caminero and Ben Rice (both with 26 home runs), Jordan Walker, Willson Contreras, and Jac Caglianone. Two roster spots remain open as of July 10, while the Netflix-broadcast event on July 13 will test recent form, plate discipline, and matchup dynamics among the sluggers in a condensed bracket without traditional timing or outs.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby per the rules of the competition. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after July 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Semifinals have not been officially confirmed by the MLB within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,035
End Date
Jul 13, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby per the rules of the competition. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after July 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Semifinals have not been officially confirmed by the MLB within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby per the rules of the competition. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after July 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Semifinals have not been officially confirmed by the MLB within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 T-Mobile Home Run Derby at Citizens Bank Park features a restructured eight-player field and swing-based format emphasizing efficiency over endurance, with 20 swings in Round 1 and the top four advancing to semifinals. Announced participants include Bryce Harper, whose local fan support and recent power output could influence outcomes in front of the Phillies crowd, alongside power leaders Junior Caminero and Ben Rice (both with 26 home runs), Jordan Walker, Willson Contreras, and Jac Caglianone. Two roster spots remain open as of July 10, while the Netflix-broadcast event on July 13 will test recent form, plate discipline, and matchup dynamics among the sluggers in a condensed bracket without traditional timing or outs.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby per the rules of the competition. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after July 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Semifinals have not been officially confirmed by the MLB within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,035
End Date
Jul 13, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby per the rules of the competition. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after July 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Semifinals have not been officially confirmed by the MLB within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB Home Run Derby 2026: Player to Advance To Semifinals" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Willson Contreras" at 100%, followed by "Junior Caminero" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB Home Run Derby 2026: Player to Advance To Semifinals" has generated $16K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 10, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB Home Run Derby 2026: Player to Advance To Semifinals," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB Home Run Derby 2026: Player to Advance To Semifinals" is "Willson Contreras" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Junior Caminero" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB Home Run Derby 2026: Player to Advance To Semifinals" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.