US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 without agreement, prompting President Trump to announce a US military blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz starting April 13, signaling potential escalation after five days of a fragile two-week truce brokered by Pakistan on April 8. Israel's ongoing airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon have strained the pause, with the IDF preparing for renewed conflict against Iran and consistent US operations suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities. Iran maintains sovereignty claims over the strait and demands compensation plus withdrawal guarantees to end hostilities, while traders weigh the April 22 ceasefire expiration amid warnings of massive bombing or ground forces if de-escalation fails.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$1,256,214 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 11
No
March 12
No
March 13
No
March 14
No
March 15
No
March 16
No
March 17
No
March 18
No
March 19
No
March 20
No
March 21
No
March 22
No
March 23
No
March 24
No
March 25
No
March 26
No
March 27
No
March 28
No
March 29
No
March 30
No
March 31
No
April 15
Yes
April 30
Yes
May 31
Yes
June 30
Yes
$1,256,214 Vol.
March 11
$0 Vol.
No
March 12
$0 Vol.
No
March 13
$0 Vol.
No
March 14
$0 Vol.
No
March 15
$0 Vol.
No
March 16
$0 Vol.
No
March 17
$0 Vol.
No
March 18
$0 Vol.
No
March 19
$0 Vol.
No
March 20
$0 Vol.
No
March 21
$0 Vol.
No
March 22
$0 Vol.
No
March 23
$0 Vol.
No
March 24
$0 Vol.
No
March 25
$0 Vol.
No
March 26
$20,013 Vol.
No
March 27
$14,521 Vol.
No
March 28
$24,485 Vol.
No
March 29
$42,600 Vol.
No
March 30
$25,561 Vol.
No
March 31
$121,052 Vol.
No
April 15
$320,076 Vol.
Yes
April 30
$214,953 Vol.
Yes
May 31
$159,535 Vol.
Yes
June 30
$313,417 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 without agreement, prompting President Trump to announce a US military blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz starting April 13, signaling potential escalation after five days of a fragile two-week truce brokered by Pakistan on April 8. Israel's ongoing airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon have strained the pause, with the IDF preparing for renewed conflict against Iran and consistent US operations suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities. Iran maintains sovereignty claims over the strait and demands compensation plus withdrawal guarantees to end hostilities, while traders weigh the April 22 ceasefire expiration amid warnings of massive bombing or ground forces if de-escalation fails.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
Volume
$1,256,214End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 without agreement, prompting President Trump to announce a US military blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz starting April 13, signaling potential escalation after five days of a fragile two-week truce brokered by Pakistan on April 8. Israel's ongoing airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon have strained the pause, with the IDF preparing for renewed conflict against Iran and consistent US operations suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities. Iran maintains sovereignty claims over the strait and demands compensation plus withdrawal guarantees to end hostilities, while traders weigh the April 22 ceasefire expiration amid warnings of massive bombing or ground forces if de-escalation fails.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,256,214End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 without agreement, prompting President Trump to announce a US military blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz starting April 13, signaling potential escalation after five days of a fragile two-week truce brokered by Pakistan on April 8. Israel's ongoing airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon have strained the pause, with the IDF preparing for renewed conflict against Iran and consistent US operations suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities. Iran maintains sovereignty claims over the strait and demands compensation plus withdrawal guarantees to end hostilities, while traders weigh the April 22 ceasefire expiration amid warnings of massive bombing or ground forces if de-escalation fails.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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