Microsoft’s current market capitalization stands near $3.68 trillion amid robust Azure expansion, with the segment surpassing a $100 billion annualized run rate after 43% year-over-year growth in fiscal Q4 2026. Heavy capital expenditures—projected near $175 billion for the coming fiscal year—continue to pressure free cash flow despite double-digit revenue and operating income guidance, creating tension between long-term AI infrastructure buildout and nearer-term profitability metrics. Copilot adoption and a $678 billion commercial backlog support sustained momentum, yet capacity constraints and macro factors introduce variability. With next results due October 28 and only months remaining until year-end resolution, trader-implied odds reflect balanced uncertainty around execution on AI monetization versus spending intensity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$2.50T 0
$2.50-$3.00T 0
$3.00-$3.50T 0
$3.50-$4.00T 0
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.50T
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$2.50-$3.00T
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$3.00-$3.50T
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$3.50-$4.00T
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$4.00-$4.50T
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$4.50-$5.00T
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$5.00T+
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<$2.50T 0
$2.50-$3.00T 0
$3.00-$3.50T 0
$3.50-$4.00T 0
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.50T
$0 Vol.
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$2.50-$3.00T
$0 Vol.
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$3.00-$3.50T
$0 Vol.
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$3.50-$4.00T
$0 Vol.
-
$4.00-$4.50T
$0 Vol.
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$4.50-$5.00T
$0 Vol.
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$5.00T+
$0 Vol.
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This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Microsoft’s current market capitalization stands near $3.68 trillion amid robust Azure expansion, with the segment surpassing a $100 billion annualized run rate after 43% year-over-year growth in fiscal Q4 2026. Heavy capital expenditures—projected near $175 billion for the coming fiscal year—continue to pressure free cash flow despite double-digit revenue and operating income guidance, creating tension between long-term AI infrastructure buildout and nearer-term profitability metrics. Copilot adoption and a $678 billion commercial backlog support sustained momentum, yet capacity constraints and macro factors introduce variability. With next results due October 28 and only months remaining until year-end resolution, trader-implied odds reflect balanced uncertainty around execution on AI monetization versus spending intensity.
This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 7:49 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Microsoft’s current market capitalization stands near $3.68 trillion amid robust Azure expansion, with the segment surpassing a $100 billion annualized run rate after 43% year-over-year growth in fiscal Q4 2026. Heavy capital expenditures—projected near $175 billion for the coming fiscal year—continue to pressure free cash flow despite double-digit revenue and operating income guidance, creating tension between long-term AI infrastructure buildout and nearer-term profitability metrics. Copilot adoption and a $678 billion commercial backlog support sustained momentum, yet capacity constraints and macro factors introduce variability. With next results due October 28 and only months remaining until year-end resolution, trader-implied odds reflect balanced uncertainty around execution on AI monetization versus spending intensity.
This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Microsoft’s current market capitalization stands near $3.68 trillion amid robust Azure expansion, with the segment surpassing a $100 billion annualized run rate after 43% year-over-year growth in fiscal Q4 2026. Heavy capital expenditures—projected near $175 billion for the coming fiscal year—continue to pressure free cash flow despite double-digit revenue and operating income guidance, creating tension between long-term AI infrastructure buildout and nearer-term profitability metrics. Copilot adoption and a $678 billion commercial backlog support sustained momentum, yet capacity constraints and macro factors introduce variability. With next results due October 28 and only months remaining until year-end resolution, trader-implied odds reflect balanced uncertainty around execution on AI monetization versus spending intensity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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