The Michigan Senate race for the open seat previously held by retiring Democrat Gary Peters features a tight contest between Abdul El-Sayed, who narrowly won the August 4 Democratic primary against establishment-backed Haley Stevens amid heavy outside spending, and Mike Rogers, the unopposed Republican nominee and 2024 Senate candidate. Recent late-August and early-September polls, including a Glengariff Group survey showing Rogers ahead by just 1.4 points within the margin of error, have framed the matchup as a toss-up, with El-Sayed stronger among younger, college-educated, and Black voters while Rogers performs better with independents and older demographics. Trader consensus assigning El-Sayed the higher probability appears driven by Democratic fundraising edges, base mobilization potential in this swing state, and historical patterns favoring the party in open-seat races, even as negative advertising and undecided voters keep outcomes uncertain ahead of November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichigan Senate Election Winner
Michigan Senate Election Winner
$677,855 Vol.
$677,855 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
66%
Mike Rogers (R)
35%
$677,855 Vol.
$677,855 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
$371,051 Vol.
66%
Mike Rogers (R)
$306,803 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The Michigan Senate race for the open seat previously held by retiring Democrat Gary Peters features a tight contest between Abdul El-Sayed, who narrowly won the August 4 Democratic primary against establishment-backed Haley Stevens amid heavy outside spending, and Mike Rogers, the unopposed Republican nominee and 2024 Senate candidate. Recent late-August and early-September polls, including a Glengariff Group survey showing Rogers ahead by just 1.4 points within the margin of error, have framed the matchup as a toss-up, with El-Sayed stronger among younger, college-educated, and Black voters while Rogers performs better with independents and older demographics. Trader consensus assigning El-Sayed the higher probability appears driven by Democratic fundraising edges, base mobilization potential in this swing state, and historical patterns favoring the party in open-seat races, even as negative advertising and undecided voters keep outcomes uncertain ahead of November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$677,855End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The Michigan Senate race for the open seat previously held by retiring Democrat Gary Peters features a tight contest between Abdul El-Sayed, who narrowly won the August 4 Democratic primary against establishment-backed Haley Stevens amid heavy outside spending, and Mike Rogers, the unopposed Republican nominee and 2024 Senate candidate. Recent late-August and early-September polls, including a Glengariff Group survey showing Rogers ahead by just 1.4 points within the margin of error, have framed the matchup as a toss-up, with El-Sayed stronger among younger, college-educated, and Black voters while Rogers performs better with independents and older demographics. Trader consensus assigning El-Sayed the higher probability appears driven by Democratic fundraising edges, base mobilization potential in this swing state, and historical patterns favoring the party in open-seat races, even as negative advertising and undecided voters keep outcomes uncertain ahead of November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$677,855End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Michigan Senate race for the open seat previously held by retiring Democrat Gary Peters features a tight contest between Abdul El-Sayed, who narrowly won the August 4 Democratic primary against establishment-backed Haley Stevens amid heavy outside spending, and Mike Rogers, the unopposed Republican nominee and 2024 Senate candidate. Recent late-August and early-September polls, including a Glengariff Group survey showing Rogers ahead by just 1.4 points within the margin of error, have framed the matchup as a toss-up, with El-Sayed stronger among younger, college-educated, and Black voters while Rogers performs better with independents and older demographics. Trader consensus assigning El-Sayed the higher probability appears driven by Democratic fundraising edges, base mobilization potential in this swing state, and historical patterns favoring the party in open-seat races, even as negative advertising and undecided voters keep outcomes uncertain ahead of November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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