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icon for MI-08 Republican Primary Winner

MI-08 Republican Primary Winner

icon for MI-08 Republican Primary Winner

MI-08 Republican Primary Winner

Thomas J. Smith 100.0%

Amir Hassan <1%

Alfred Lemmo <1%

Polymarket

$5,367 Vol.

Thomas J. Smith 100.0%

Amir Hassan <1%

Alfred Lemmo <1%

Polymarket

$5,367 Vol.

icon for Amir Hassan

Amir Hassan

$3,062 Vol.

No

icon for Alfred Lemmo

Alfred Lemmo

$648 Vol.

No

icon for Thomas J. Smith

Thomas J. Smith

$1,657 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Thomas J. Smith secured the Republican nomination for Michigan's 8th Congressional District in the August 4 primary with roughly 50 percent of the vote, defeating the Trump-endorsed Amir Hassan and a third candidate despite suspending his own campaign in mid-July. His name remained on the ballot, allowing residual voter recognition among district Republicans to carry the outcome in key counties. This result aligns with trader consensus at 100 percent, reflecting the completed primary and absence of viable challenges. Potential shifts could arise only from an official recount, successful legal contest over ballot eligibility, or withdrawal before certification, though the margin and timing make such developments improbable.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$5,367
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:42 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Thomas J. Smith secured the Republican nomination for Michigan's 8th Congressional District in the August 4 primary with roughly 50 percent of the vote, defeating the Trump-endorsed Amir Hassan and a third candidate despite suspending his own campaign in mid-July. His name remained on the ballot, allowing residual voter recognition among district Republicans to carry the outcome in key counties. This result aligns with trader consensus at 100 percent, reflecting the completed primary and absence of viable challenges. Potential shifts could arise only from an official recount, successful legal contest over ballot eligibility, or withdrawal before certification, though the margin and timing make such developments improbable.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$5,367
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:42 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MI-08 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Thomas J. Smith" at 100%, followed by "Amir Hassan" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MI-08 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MI-08 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MI-08 Republican Primary Winner" is "Thomas J. Smith" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Amir Hassan" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MI-08 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.