Trader consensus on Polymarket centers the May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly at 1.10–1.14ºC above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline (50% implied probability), reflecting April 2026 Copernicus data showing a 1.43ºC anomaly—joint third-warmest April on record—amid transitioning ENSO conditions from neutral toward El Niño (70-82% chance per IRI and NOAA CPC forecasts for May-July). This positions the leading bin ahead of slightly higher outcomes, as multi-model ensembles from WMO project above-normal land temperatures for May-June-July but acknowledge monthly variability from ocean-atmosphere coupling and aerosol influences. Recent Berkeley Earth March update (1.45ºC) underscores persistent warmth, yet traders weigh historical May baselines around 1.1ºC against emerging El Niño boost; final resolution awaits early June datasets from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA, with preliminary mid-May reanalyses potentially shifting odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 50%
1.15–1.19ºC 28%
<1.10ºC 14%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
$45,041 Vol.
$45,041 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
14%
1.10–1.14ºC
50%
1.15–1.19ºC
28%
1.20–1.24ºC
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 50%
1.15–1.19ºC 28%
<1.10ºC 14%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
$45,041 Vol.
$45,041 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$21,311 Vol.
14%
1.10–1.14ºC
$3,460 Vol.
50%
1.15–1.19ºC
$5,209 Vol.
28%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,585 Vol.
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
$4,622 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$6,854 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers the May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly at 1.10–1.14ºC above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline (50% implied probability), reflecting April 2026 Copernicus data showing a 1.43ºC anomaly—joint third-warmest April on record—amid transitioning ENSO conditions from neutral toward El Niño (70-82% chance per IRI and NOAA CPC forecasts for May-July). This positions the leading bin ahead of slightly higher outcomes, as multi-model ensembles from WMO project above-normal land temperatures for May-June-July but acknowledge monthly variability from ocean-atmosphere coupling and aerosol influences. Recent Berkeley Earth March update (1.45ºC) underscores persistent warmth, yet traders weigh historical May baselines around 1.1ºC against emerging El Niño boost; final resolution awaits early June datasets from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA, with preliminary mid-May reanalyses potentially shifting odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$45,041End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers the May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly at 1.10–1.14ºC above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline (50% implied probability), reflecting April 2026 Copernicus data showing a 1.43ºC anomaly—joint third-warmest April on record—amid transitioning ENSO conditions from neutral toward El Niño (70-82% chance per IRI and NOAA CPC forecasts for May-July). This positions the leading bin ahead of slightly higher outcomes, as multi-model ensembles from WMO project above-normal land temperatures for May-June-July but acknowledge monthly variability from ocean-atmosphere coupling and aerosol influences. Recent Berkeley Earth March update (1.45ºC) underscores persistent warmth, yet traders weigh historical May baselines around 1.1ºC against emerging El Niño boost; final resolution awaits early June datasets from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA, with preliminary mid-May reanalyses potentially shifting odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$45,041End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers the May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly at 1.10–1.14ºC above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline (50% implied probability), reflecting April 2026 Copernicus data showing a 1.43ºC anomaly—joint third-warmest April on record—amid transitioning ENSO conditions from neutral toward El Niño (70-82% chance per IRI and NOAA CPC forecasts for May-July). This positions the leading bin ahead of slightly higher outcomes, as multi-model ensembles from WMO project above-normal land temperatures for May-June-July but acknowledge monthly variability from ocean-atmosphere coupling and aerosol influences. Recent Berkeley Earth March update (1.45ºC) underscores persistent warmth, yet traders weigh historical May baselines around 1.1ºC against emerging El Niño boost; final resolution awaits early June datasets from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA, with preliminary mid-May reanalyses potentially shifting odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions