Marta Kostyuk's straight-sets 6-3, 7-5 victory over Mirra Andreeva in the 2026 Mutua Madrid Open women's singles final on May 2 has solidified trader consensus at 100% implied probability for her as champion, securing her maiden WTA 1000 title on clay at La Caja Magica. Early upsets eliminated top seeds including Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff, and Iga Swiatek, paving the way for the 26th-seeded Kostyuk—who rallied past Anastasia Potapova 6-2, 1-6, 6-1 in the semifinals—and ninth-seeded Andreeva, who advanced after holding off Hailey Baptiste. Kostyuk's superior clay-court form and resilience in the decider drove the market's dominant positioning, with official results leaving scant room for challenges absent disputes or appeals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved
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