**Forecast models place Warsaw's overnight minimum temperature for September 2, 2026, near 13–14 °C, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities around 50 % for 12 °C, 13 °C, and 14 °C.** High pressure near 1018–1019 hPa, light westerly to southwesterly winds (2–4 m/s), and increasing overnight cloud cover (40–90 % in many runs) moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs reached 21–24 °C. Dew points near 12–13 °C limit further temperature drops once saturation is approached, while scattered light showers in some guidance add minor mixing. Global models such as GFS show minor spread in the precise timing and extent of clearing, creating the tight clustering of outcomes; historical September minima average ~10–11 °C, but current synoptic conditions support a milder night. Updated model runs and official observations through the early morning hours remain the key variables that could shift the final recorded low within the narrow 12–14 °C band.