Official temperature observations from Environment Canada for Toronto on October 6 show a daily low of 5°C, driving the 95% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. This aligns with regional forecast models and surface station readings under stable high-pressure conditions that limited overnight cooling. Traders assign only 49% odds to 4°C and under 6% to 0°C or below, reflecting the absence of colder air advection or clear-sky radiational cooling that would have produced lower minima. Historical October baselines for the area rarely dip below 5°C without strong frontal passages, reinforcing the current positioning. Updated station data or any post-analysis adjustments to the official minimum could still shift resolution if discrepancies emerge before final settlement.