Current Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a nighttime minimum of 25°C in Tokyo on August 9 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds, aligning closely with the 25–26°C range typical for early August climatology when subtropical high pressure dominates. This consensus draws from official observational networks and model runs showing limited nocturnal cooling due to high humidity and urban heat retention, which keeps surface temperatures elevated overnight. Trader positioning at 25°C with full implied probability reflects the narrow uncertainty band around these verified guidance products. A realistic shift would require an unforecasted clear-sky radiative cooling event or localized station-specific variation exceeding normal measurement tolerances, though current atmospheric stability makes such outcomes improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 9?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 9?
25°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$16,474 Vol.
$16,474 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$16,474 Vol.
$16,474 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
21°C or below
$376 Vol.
No
22°C
$976 Vol.
No
23°C
$904 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,087 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,150 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$6,030 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,140 Vol.
No
28°C
$601 Vol.
No
29°C
$460 Vol.
No
30°C
$379 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$374 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a nighttime minimum of 25°C in Tokyo on August 9 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds, aligning closely with the 25–26°C range typical for early August climatology when subtropical high pressure dominates. This consensus draws from official observational networks and model runs showing limited nocturnal cooling due to high humidity and urban heat retention, which keeps surface temperatures elevated overnight. Trader positioning at 25°C with full implied probability reflects the narrow uncertainty band around these verified guidance products. A realistic shift would require an unforecasted clear-sky radiative cooling event or localized station-specific variation exceeding normal measurement tolerances, though current atmospheric stability makes such outcomes improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$16,474End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a nighttime minimum of 25°C in Tokyo on August 9 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds, aligning closely with the 25–26°C range typical for early August climatology when subtropical high pressure dominates. This consensus draws from official observational networks and model runs showing limited nocturnal cooling due to high humidity and urban heat retention, which keeps surface temperatures elevated overnight. Trader positioning at 25°C with full implied probability reflects the narrow uncertainty band around these verified guidance products. A realistic shift would require an unforecasted clear-sky radiative cooling event or localized station-specific variation exceeding normal measurement tolerances, though current atmospheric stability makes such outcomes improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,474End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a nighttime minimum of 25°C in Tokyo on August 9 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds, aligning closely with the 25–26°C range typical for early August climatology when subtropical high pressure dominates. This consensus draws from official observational networks and model runs showing limited nocturnal cooling due to high humidity and urban heat retention, which keeps surface temperatures elevated overnight. Trader positioning at 25°C with full implied probability reflects the narrow uncertainty band around these verified guidance products. A realistic shift would require an unforecasted clear-sky radiative cooling event or localized station-specific variation exceeding normal measurement tolerances, though current atmospheric stability makes such outcomes improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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