**Trader consensus on the Polymarket strongly favors a 26°C minimum for Tokyo on August 8, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued on August 8 projecting a nighttime low of 25°C under clear-to-cloudy conditions, with recent model runs and surface observations aligning closely with 26°C as the expected bottom. August climatology shows typical overnight minima of 24–25°C amid high humidity and weak nocturnal cooling, and current atmospheric patterns—stable high pressure and limited cloud cover—support only modest temperature drops after the daytime peak near 33°C. Key upcoming data points include updated JMA briefings and final station readings from Tokyo’s official network, which resolve the market. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted influx of cooler marine air or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, though these remain low-probability deviations given the established steering pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$9,774 Vol.
$9,774 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$9,774 Vol.
$9,774 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
21°C or below
$175 Vol.
No
22°C
$238 Vol.
No
23°C
$403 Vol.
No
24°C
$926 Vol.
No
25°C
$742 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,178 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$2,983 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,328 Vol.
No
29°C
$406 Vol.
No
30°C
$77 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$318 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the Polymarket strongly favors a 26°C minimum for Tokyo on August 8, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued on August 8 projecting a nighttime low of 25°C under clear-to-cloudy conditions, with recent model runs and surface observations aligning closely with 26°C as the expected bottom. August climatology shows typical overnight minima of 24–25°C amid high humidity and weak nocturnal cooling, and current atmospheric patterns—stable high pressure and limited cloud cover—support only modest temperature drops after the daytime peak near 33°C. Key upcoming data points include updated JMA briefings and final station readings from Tokyo’s official network, which resolve the market. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted influx of cooler marine air or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, though these remain low-probability deviations given the established steering pattern.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$9,774End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the Polymarket strongly favors a 26°C minimum for Tokyo on August 8, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued on August 8 projecting a nighttime low of 25°C under clear-to-cloudy conditions, with recent model runs and surface observations aligning closely with 26°C as the expected bottom. August climatology shows typical overnight minima of 24–25°C amid high humidity and weak nocturnal cooling, and current atmospheric patterns—stable high pressure and limited cloud cover—support only modest temperature drops after the daytime peak near 33°C. Key upcoming data points include updated JMA briefings and final station readings from Tokyo’s official network, which resolve the market. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted influx of cooler marine air or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, though these remain low-probability deviations given the established steering pattern.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,774End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus on the Polymarket strongly favors a 26°C minimum for Tokyo on August 8, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued on August 8 projecting a nighttime low of 25°C under clear-to-cloudy conditions, with recent model runs and surface observations aligning closely with 26°C as the expected bottom. August climatology shows typical overnight minima of 24–25°C amid high humidity and weak nocturnal cooling, and current atmospheric patterns—stable high pressure and limited cloud cover—support only modest temperature drops after the daytime peak near 33°C. Key upcoming data points include updated JMA briefings and final station readings from Tokyo’s official network, which resolve the market. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted influx of cooler marine air or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, though these remain low-probability deviations given the established steering pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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