Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum temperature on August 18 will reach approximately 24–25°C under typical summer conditions of high humidity and light southerly winds, aligning with the market's near-certain consensus at 25°C. This positioning reflects consistent model agreement on stable atmospheric patterns without significant cooling influences such as frontal passages or enhanced cloud cover that could depress readings further. Historical August climatology for the region supports minimums clustered around 23–25°C, with urban heat island effects often moderating extremes. Traders appear to weigh the low probability of rapid shifts from an approaching weather system or localized measurement variations at official stations as insufficient to alter the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$12,655 Vol.
$12,655 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$12,655 Vol.
$12,655 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
20°C or below
$422 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,319 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,616 Vol.
No
23°C
$3,009 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,485 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,520 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$439 Vol.
No
27°C
$559 Vol.
No
28°C
$676 Vol.
No
29°C
$318 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$292 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum temperature on August 18 will reach approximately 24–25°C under typical summer conditions of high humidity and light southerly winds, aligning with the market's near-certain consensus at 25°C. This positioning reflects consistent model agreement on stable atmospheric patterns without significant cooling influences such as frontal passages or enhanced cloud cover that could depress readings further. Historical August climatology for the region supports minimums clustered around 23–25°C, with urban heat island effects often moderating extremes. Traders appear to weigh the low probability of rapid shifts from an approaching weather system or localized measurement variations at official stations as insufficient to alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$12,655End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum temperature on August 18 will reach approximately 24–25°C under typical summer conditions of high humidity and light southerly winds, aligning with the market's near-certain consensus at 25°C. This positioning reflects consistent model agreement on stable atmospheric patterns without significant cooling influences such as frontal passages or enhanced cloud cover that could depress readings further. Historical August climatology for the region supports minimums clustered around 23–25°C, with urban heat island effects often moderating extremes. Traders appear to weigh the low probability of rapid shifts from an approaching weather system or localized measurement variations at official stations as insufficient to alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,655End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum temperature on August 18 will reach approximately 24–25°C under typical summer conditions of high humidity and light southerly winds, aligning with the market's near-certain consensus at 25°C. This positioning reflects consistent model agreement on stable atmospheric patterns without significant cooling influences such as frontal passages or enhanced cloud cover that could depress readings further. Historical August climatology for the region supports minimums clustered around 23–25°C, with urban heat island effects often moderating extremes. Traders appear to weigh the low probability of rapid shifts from an approaching weather system or localized measurement variations at official stations as insufficient to alter the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions