Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency position Tokyo’s overnight minimum near 23°C on August 17 under cloudy conditions, elevated humidity near 75-80 percent, and typical urban heat retention that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with mid-August climatology where daily normals reach 23.3°C and recent model runs show limited variability from steering patterns or precipitation. The market’s near-certain consensus on 23°C reflects this data-driven outlook and the resolution criteria tied to official station readings. Clearer skies or stronger nocturnal winds could allow modest additional cooling toward 22°C, though current observations and short-range guidance make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$14,546 Vol.
$14,546 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$14,546 Vol.
$14,546 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
19°C or below
$197 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,904 Vol.
No
21°C
$862 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,483 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,234 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$5,219 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,636 Vol.
No
26°C
$390 Vol.
No
27°C
$212 Vol.
No
28°C
$197 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$212 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency position Tokyo’s overnight minimum near 23°C on August 17 under cloudy conditions, elevated humidity near 75-80 percent, and typical urban heat retention that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with mid-August climatology where daily normals reach 23.3°C and recent model runs show limited variability from steering patterns or precipitation. The market’s near-certain consensus on 23°C reflects this data-driven outlook and the resolution criteria tied to official station readings. Clearer skies or stronger nocturnal winds could allow modest additional cooling toward 22°C, though current observations and short-range guidance make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$14,546End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency position Tokyo’s overnight minimum near 23°C on August 17 under cloudy conditions, elevated humidity near 75-80 percent, and typical urban heat retention that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with mid-August climatology where daily normals reach 23.3°C and recent model runs show limited variability from steering patterns or precipitation. The market’s near-certain consensus on 23°C reflects this data-driven outlook and the resolution criteria tied to official station readings. Clearer skies or stronger nocturnal winds could allow modest additional cooling toward 22°C, though current observations and short-range guidance make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,546End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency position Tokyo’s overnight minimum near 23°C on August 17 under cloudy conditions, elevated humidity near 75-80 percent, and typical urban heat retention that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with mid-August climatology where daily normals reach 23.3°C and recent model runs show limited variability from steering patterns or precipitation. The market’s near-certain consensus on 23°C reflects this data-driven outlook and the resolution criteria tied to official station readings. Clearer skies or stronger nocturnal winds could allow modest additional cooling toward 22°C, though current observations and short-range guidance make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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