Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs project Tokyo's overnight low on August 12 near 23°C amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity that suppress radiative cooling. This aligns closely with the 23.7°C August climatological normal, reinforced by the urban heat-island effect that retains warmth in the dense built environment. Traders have consolidated near-certain implied probability on 23°C because current synoptic conditions and model consensus strongly support this range. Modest uncertainty persists around rainfall timing or brief clear spells that could permit 1°C additional cooling to 22°C, while outcomes below 21°C or above 24°C remain improbable without unexpected marine air intrusion or steering flow changes; evening observations will refine the final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$12,056 Vol.
$12,056 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$12,056 Vol.
$12,056 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
18°C or below
$977 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,005 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,518 Vol.
No
21°C
$824 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,044 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,937 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$2,711 Vol.
No
25°C
$824 Vol.
No
26°C
$385 Vol.
No
27°C
$420 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$410 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs project Tokyo's overnight low on August 12 near 23°C amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity that suppress radiative cooling. This aligns closely with the 23.7°C August climatological normal, reinforced by the urban heat-island effect that retains warmth in the dense built environment. Traders have consolidated near-certain implied probability on 23°C because current synoptic conditions and model consensus strongly support this range. Modest uncertainty persists around rainfall timing or brief clear spells that could permit 1°C additional cooling to 22°C, while outcomes below 21°C or above 24°C remain improbable without unexpected marine air intrusion or steering flow changes; evening observations will refine the final resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$12,056End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs project Tokyo's overnight low on August 12 near 23°C amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity that suppress radiative cooling. This aligns closely with the 23.7°C August climatological normal, reinforced by the urban heat-island effect that retains warmth in the dense built environment. Traders have consolidated near-certain implied probability on 23°C because current synoptic conditions and model consensus strongly support this range. Modest uncertainty persists around rainfall timing or brief clear spells that could permit 1°C additional cooling to 22°C, while outcomes below 21°C or above 24°C remain improbable without unexpected marine air intrusion or steering flow changes; evening observations will refine the final resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,056End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs project Tokyo's overnight low on August 12 near 23°C amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity that suppress radiative cooling. This aligns closely with the 23.7°C August climatological normal, reinforced by the urban heat-island effect that retains warmth in the dense built environment. Traders have consolidated near-certain implied probability on 23°C because current synoptic conditions and model consensus strongly support this range. Modest uncertainty persists around rainfall timing or brief clear spells that could permit 1°C additional cooling to 22°C, while outcomes below 21°C or above 24°C remain improbable without unexpected marine air intrusion or steering flow changes; evening observations will refine the final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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