Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 24°C in Tokyo on August 10, driven by stable overnight conditions with light winds, high humidity, and cloud cover limiting radiative cooling. Historical August baselines place typical lows near 23–24°C, and recent model runs show tight agreement around this threshold with minimal spread. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects this alignment of observational data and ensemble predictions. Unanticipated clear skies or shifts in steering patterns could allow slightly lower readings, though such deviations remain low-probability given persistent moisture and the narrow forecast window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 10?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 10?
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$15,642 Vol.
$15,642 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$15,642 Vol.
$15,642 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
18°C or below
$374 Vol.
No
19°C
$396 Vol.
No
20°C
$456 Vol.
No
21°C
$448 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,559 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,363 Vol.
No
24°C
$4,641 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$2,975 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,313 Vol.
No
27°C
$538 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$579 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 24°C in Tokyo on August 10, driven by stable overnight conditions with light winds, high humidity, and cloud cover limiting radiative cooling. Historical August baselines place typical lows near 23–24°C, and recent model runs show tight agreement around this threshold with minimal spread. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects this alignment of observational data and ensemble predictions. Unanticipated clear skies or shifts in steering patterns could allow slightly lower readings, though such deviations remain low-probability given persistent moisture and the narrow forecast window.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$15,642End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 24°C in Tokyo on August 10, driven by stable overnight conditions with light winds, high humidity, and cloud cover limiting radiative cooling. Historical August baselines place typical lows near 23–24°C, and recent model runs show tight agreement around this threshold with minimal spread. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects this alignment of observational data and ensemble predictions. Unanticipated clear skies or shifts in steering patterns could allow slightly lower readings, though such deviations remain low-probability given persistent moisture and the narrow forecast window.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,642End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 24°C in Tokyo on August 10, driven by stable overnight conditions with light winds, high humidity, and cloud cover limiting radiative cooling. Historical August baselines place typical lows near 23–24°C, and recent model runs show tight agreement around this threshold with minimal spread. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects this alignment of observational data and ensemble predictions. Unanticipated clear skies or shifts in steering patterns could allow slightly lower readings, though such deviations remain low-probability given persistent moisture and the narrow forecast window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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